Ticker Tape by TradingView
Weekly Newsletter   Challenge account   Weekly Newsletter   


Posted by Martin May 26, 2015
No Comments



 




$SPX market expectation for Wednesday, May 27th


(05/26/2015 HS) – Market took a hit today. Quite large one, compared to the non-moves we have seen in previous days. The S&P 500 lost 1% today. It could have been more, but at the last hour the market rallied and erased some losses. Should we be worried?

Hard to answer that question. The market lost on renewed fear of FED rising interest rates. It all has been here already. We have all seen this. This is nothing new and yet investors are freaking about it.

Does the economy justify interest hike? I do not think so. But I am not an economist and I can’t say. I just use common sense to make this judgement. But common sense is no longer used and desired in today’s Wall Street game or the economic books cooking.

$4.95 Stock Trades at OptionsHouse.com
We are seeing FED applying all sorts of monetary hocus-pocus, kicking the can down the street and yet we see us floating. They do things even a financially irresponsible person wouldn’t dare doing and it flies by. Well, maybe we will see consequences later on.

Is the selling, we experienced, good for the market? Will it continue? No one knows. What troubles me with this market though is the pattern I am seeing. When the market goes higher, it is usually on a low volume, but when it sells off, the volume spikes up. This is troublesome.

Analysts are expecting this market going higher. But who are they? These are people from Goldman Sachs or Merrill Lynch, for example. Is their prediction meant to be good for all or are they just pumping this market up so they can get out?

Today’s selling provided a lot of technical damage. Many of my indicators I watch turned down. But nothing is lost yet. We still may see a bounce and recovery. We may see a bouncy market.

The market is quite oversold now (note, I am looking at a short period of time now at a daily frame) and we may see a bounce. It may not be a big one, however. The good thing was that bulls stepped in at the end of the trading session and pushed the market higher. They may have some more power left and recover this market.

Unfortunately, I do not think this will happen tomorrow. We may see some buying in the morning, but the rest of the day will belong to bears and I expect this market to go DOWN.
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin May 25, 2015
No Comments



 




$SPX market expectation for Tuesday, May 26th


(05/25/2015 HS) – On Friday, last week, I expected the market to move higher. I expected FED to be taken positively by investors as they would see that FED will most likely postpone interest rates hike due to slowing economy. I didn’t have time to watch or read what actually Yellen said, but overall results would be that FED is ready to raise the rates, probably in September, this year. I think such step would be bad for the US economy and slow it even further, but I am not here to judge or predict that. It’s just my guts.

$4.95 Stock Trades at OptionsHouse.com
However, the market acted mixed on the news. The investors took it positively at first and the market went up, but it didn’t have enough strength to sustain the move and by the end of the trading session, it fell down.

Such weakness can be detrimental for the recent break out and stop it where it began. Although I do not like it myself, I think this weakness will continue and investors will continue freaking out and selling equities. For tomorrow, I expect the market to go DOWN.
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Guest May 20, 2015
No Comments



 




OPEC Struggling To Keep Up The Pace In Oil Price War


OilPriceSome market watchers, such as Cornerstone Analytics (CA), have consistently stated that the underestimation of demand, coupled with over-estimation of supply, will mask the growing call on OPEC oil in the second half of this year. CA recently noted that global demand outstripped supply by some 4 million barrels in April . This comes in addition to the mounting evidence that the oil market, via rig count declines, slowing production growth, higher demand and huge API crude inventory declines, is starting to readjust.

Be that as it may, Goldman Sachs (GS) seems to believe oil must fall to $45 by October (like it previously thought $30 oil was a certainty) to clear the market and rebalance, despite signs that a readjustment is already underway. When was the last time fundaments got ignored and prices went in opposite direction? As an aside, take a look at the S&P 500 vs. GDP growth, as one makes new highs while the other falls from 3.0 percent growth to under 1 percent so far this year!

Super 8 Film to DVD
Advertising

In other words, asset prices continue to be set by central bankers, and not free markets, so the GS call does make sense if you believe fundamentals don’t matter at all. Still, they should be discussed either way. Rather than being based on the fundamentals, GS, like others, have consistently been off the mark when it comes to oil prices, but refuse to acknowledge it (the agenda at GS has been exposed via Zerohedge). Multiple calls just this week for $45, on top of other economic research, clearly reveal this.

I will be first to admit that I thought oil prices short term would peak in $60s and $70s, but I never thought they would retest the lows. Why should they, if all the trends point to markets slowly rebalancing? In fact, there is growing evidence that not only are we slowly rebalancing but the world may actually be running short of oil. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has turned down requests from China for more oil, as they are using it for their own domestic refining needs. It goes on to quote: “[a]nother source with a Chinese refinery that takes Saudi oil said Saudi heavy crude was ‘a bit tight’ in May and June.” China was forced to turn to Russia, Oman, and other non-OPEC nations for their needed supply. Why would Saudi Arabia refuse to supply China unless oil was, in fact, tight?

This provides the strongest indication yet that the world is not facing a 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in supply, as many allege, and instead the call on OPEC crude is most likely growing. The latest EIA weekly inventory data showing a drawdown of 2.7 million barrels reaffirms that the US is no longer oversupplied either.

Finally, just to reinforce the point, oil companies indicated during some of their first quarter 2015 earnings calls that rigs could begin to be added back into operation when prices reach somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 per barrel. Quite frankly, producers shoot themselves in the foot by providing a set price, which, I believe, affects how oil is traded. GS and everyone else are using that guidance on trading oil. But to be clear, we know for sure rigs won’t be added at $50, never mind $45. Once you factor in the natural depletion of existing wells, production will have to eventually go down – another reason why the GS call will be wrong.

By Leonard Brecken of Oilprice.com




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin May 18, 2015
No Comments



 




My Cheat On Commissions At Work Again


I was able to save a few bucks again ($100) and deposit to my ROTH IRA account. Yes, my ability to save is limited therefore I depend on increasing my income and thus I trade options to make more money. But if you are just starting the investing journey and you only have a few dollars to invest, I hope this will be a good inspiration for you how you can start with small money.

There are other strategies out there, but this one works best for me.

I invest a few dollars into commission free ETF which pays dividends and save money this way. Once I save enough (I have a minimum limit of $1,000 per stock purchase), I sell the ETF and buy a dividend growth stock.

I use RWX ETF for this purpose which pays around 3% dividend and so far I was able to make money with this ETF, unlike the others where I mostly lost money.

Tomorrow, I will be adding 2 shares for free to my RWX holding. That means I will have saved $765.17 dollars. I will need to save another $234.83 dollars to have $1,000. After that, I will be able to sell RWX and buy another stock in my ROTH IRA.

Which of the following stocks would you buy if it were you?
 

[poll id=”23″]

Thanks for voting! And if you have any other stock idea, use comments below to share your tip!
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin May 18, 2015
2 Comments



 




My stock market prediction for tomorrow


When I say “stock market prediction” I do not necessarily mean predicting where it ends up. Just trying to assess the direction of the market. Yesterday, I called the market to go up based on all of my technical indicators pointing up.

Today the picture is not as clear as it was yesterday. I see a weakness in the trend. Well, the whole market is still weak. People refuse to believe in this market and yes, we still may see a return back down into the range or stay range bound in this new level.

SPX move

The picture above says it all. We had a nice move, but the indicators are weakening. The trend shows a sell signal and it is turning down. MACD is also weakening and turning down. However, this chart indicates more intraday trend and not a day trend on 1 year basis.

SPX move daily

The longer based chart shows a different picture though. We are still in nice uptrend and all technical indicators are still bullish. No reversal whatsoever.

Based on that I think the market will show some weakness, maybe in the morning, but at the end it will end up.

If weakness, what to expect?

SPX intraday

If we go down, it may happen in the morning to continue a trend from the end of today’s session and we may go down to 2128 level or a bit below it to 2126 level. Then we may reverse back up and go higher. In the worst case scenario, we may re-test 2124 level.

Although in this market, everything can happen, I expect weakness, but move higher at the end.
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin May 17, 2015
4 Comments



 




Dividend yield or rate?


As my dividend account is small my goal is to maximize income to get as much money out of my invested dollar as possible. Then the question comes, how to achieve it? I know I need to invest in companies providing higher yield to get more money in and reinvest them.

I also understand that by investing into higher yield stocks I am taking bigger risk. A true dividend growth investor would prefer investing into lesser yielding stocks but he wants to have a maximum possible security as far as income from the dividends goes.

Chasing yield can be dangerous, but there are stocks out there which offer security and high yield. There are stocks which are still acceptable such as some REITs (Realty Income O), MLPS (a former KMP now KMI), then stocks such AT&T (T), or now my favorite energy, oil involved stocks such as ConocoPhillips (COP) or Chevron (CVX).

The latter two companies were heavily sold off lately due to investors’ panic and them freaking that oil price war may hurt them if not liquidate them whatsoever. And if you look at the price of Conoco, it is still declining:

COP

Or look at Chevron (CVX) and its decline as investors are dumping the stock:

CVX

If investors are dumb enough to sell stocks which pay dividends, both provide great yield (CVX yields 3.90% and COP 4.50%) both have great dividend history and their decline is just temporary. Over the course of 5 or 10 years the stocks will be higher and paying a great dividend as they have been paying for the last 20 years.

So, if you want to dump the stock, go ahead. I will gladly buy it.

Why COP or CVX?

As you may remember, I created a proprietary screener which calculates value for every stock. COP and CVX are now ranking as the most undervalued stocks. See a screenshot of my screener:

Stock Picker

As you can see in the table above COP ranks as the most undervalued stock as the screener evaluated my entire watch list and calculated the rank for each stock. I decided to publish the result of the screener every month and invest into those stocks. How?

My stock pick investing strategy

I use two ways to invest into those stocks. My first way is to invest into those stocks by buying them all at once. How can you buy them all? It would be difficult to buy them all if you only have, let’s say. $20,000 dollars to start with. Fortunately, there is Motif investing (which by the way offers $150 promotion if you open an account, but the offer will end soon)which offers an opportunity to build a motif with your favorite stocks and invest in them all at once.

You can invest as little as $250 and buy the entire motif (portfolio), and you can purchase partial shares of each company. It works exactly like investing into a mutual fund. The good thing here is, that you can create your own mutual fund and start investing. That’s what I did here, created a motif “Undervalued Stocks” and invested my own money in it.

Turn Ideas Into an Investment. Customize or Build Your Own Motif.

My second way, or strategy, is buying high ranking individual stocks from the screener. Every time, I have money available in my ROTH IRA account, I check the screener and buy the highest ranking stock with the highest yield.

Dividend yield or rate?

I recently invested into COP as it is high ranking, high yield stock. I am saving more cash for my next purchase and I was thinking what would be my next purchase? Should I invest again into COP or should I pick the next high yielding and high ranking stock?

Then I saw CVX and what caught my eye was its dividend rate. I noticed CVX is paying $4.28 a share, while COP just $2.92 a share.

Wow, that’s almost twice as much as COP! And I want my portfolio to grow faster so investing into CVX would pay me more money, right? Well, it depends. Sometimes just looking at the numbers only without putting them into perspective can be deceiving.

I was completely decided to make my next purchase into CVX because of the higher rate I can get. But then I used a simple math.

If I invest $1,000 dollars (as is my minimum limit) I would be able to buy 15 shares of COP (at current price of $65.76), but only 9 shares of CVX (at $108.03 a share).

COP then would pay me $43.8 annual dividend, but CVX only $38.52 annual dividend.

I get more money investing into COP with a lower rate for invested dollar. That means, that I will continue investing into COP as long as it stays in my screener as “BUY”.

Well, this small exercise may seem obvious, but the point is that the numbers can be misleading and before investing, always look at them from a different perspective. Don’t invest into any stock just because one number looks better than the other one. It actually may not be.

What do you think? Would you invest into COP or CVX?
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
4 Comments



Posted by Martin May 17, 2015
No Comments



 




Is the stock market poised to break its bad luck?


Not that I believe in good or bad luck of the stock market as it is purely driven by participant state of mind and mostly their irrational behavior. By “its bad luck” I refer to already infamous “iron ceiling” as some people called it. We are once again dwelling near the all-time highs and investors and traders are now in eager expectations of what’s coming next week.

Will we break the resistance or will we bounce back down? We saw all this for more than 6 months again and again when the $SPX went literally nowhere. And it is very frustrating.

From the hind side view, it may seem easy trading such market. Trade Iron Condors and you will be fine. Unfortunately, it is not that easy. The swings of the market were so wide, that it was difficult to stay on a safe side of the trend. The swings from bearish to bullish side were so violent that it was very difficult to stay calm and ride thru them. The market played investors nerves and mine very well. One misstep and you are chasing the price tape like a fox chasing a rabbit.

$4.95 Stock Trades at OptionsHouse.com

I know what I am talking about as this happened to me again a few weeks ago. And that mistake is still chasing me. Although the trade looks OK now, it still can turn into a nightmare.

An original bearish trade suddenly turned bullish. I had a bear call spread with the lower strike at 2115. One hour before the close the market was attacking 2114 price and I panicked. It looked like that at that time it would be different and the market would go higher. End of choppiness, new all-time highs. I already raised my spread higher once and I couldn’t do it again.

So I reversed the trade into a bull put spread.

Then 15 minutes before close the market tanked and closed at 2108. It fell 6 points in 15 minutes.

I still have modifications of that trade alive trying to navigate it thru this market managing it to expiration trying to let it expire worthless. Have I stayed the course of the original trade, I would be out of the trade that day and enjoyed nice profits. But who could tell the market would crash 15 minutes before the close?

Turn Ideas Into an Investment. Customize or Build Your Own Motif.

Last Thursday and Friday price action of the market was promising. Without any catalyst or good news, the market moved up by about a 1% leap. On Friday a morning selling was quickly offset and the market ended in green. Not too much, but green anyway. Some investors see this as a good sign.

We are again near the all time highs. Will the market have the strength this time? Or will it repeat the same trap which happened a few weeks ago to me?

Market expectation for May 18

All technical indicators I watch are pointing up. MACD is rising in all time frames I watch. Heiken Ashi chart is green, positive, pointing up, and above 21 day MA. Also a parabolic SAR turned positive, see two charts below indicating those changes.

SPX move

The chart above indicates the market wants to get higher. It shows a buy signal. It turned up after a small pullback and MACD is also pointing up.

SPX expected move

Because of the technicals I expect the market to continue higher on Monday. As there is still a battle between bulls and bears we may see bears taking action on Monday, but it looks like they may lose the power and the market may actually move higher.
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin May 15, 2015
1 Comment



 




New buy in my ROTH IRA – RWX addition for free


Today, I could once again add one share of RWX to my holdings for free. Yes, saving money for my next dividend purchase could be commission free with a non-transaction fee ETF. I can buy even only one share and it will cost me a zero.

Dividends received

This week, I received a few more dividends from the following stocks:

VNR Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC $4.00
LGCY Legacy Reserves LP $28.00
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. $11.52
O Realty Income Corporation $9.29

Addition of these dividends to my account increased my available cash so I could buy a new share of RWX. I am saving $1,000 in RWX so I can buy a new stock. I already have saved $635.46 at 2.39% profit and while waiting I am collecting 2.95% in dividends.

Happy trading & investing!
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
1 Comment



Posted by Martin May 10, 2015
4 Comments



 




New buy in my ROTH IRA – RWX a commission free saving


When I started dividends investing in 2012 I had no goal or strategy and I was purchasing stocks with every penny I had. It was long before I realized how futile way of investing this was. Whenever I received a few dollars in dividends or contributed $50 to my ROTH IRA account, I immediately invested that cash into a dividend paying stock.

It was tempting as I hate my cash sitting in the account doing nothing. I wanted every penny to bring in the dividends.

I didn’t see how expensive that was.

For example, if I purchased a stock for $44.00 a share, I got hit by $9.95 commission. Such transaction got me into a staggering 22.61% loss! The cost basis of such transaction was immediately $53.95 a share.

The stock would have to move from $44.00 a share to $53.95 a share to just get break even. A horrible deal, right? And yes, I was doing that!!!

Over time I found that an acceptable amount to invest is at least $1,000 a transaction or of course more if you have more. But a picture of $800 sitting in my account waiting until I save another $200 to be able to invest and doing nothing was painful. To me this wasn’t acceptable. Mainly, at times when saving another $200 could take me a few months (at some point I could only save $50 a month!).

So, what to do if you can save only $50 monthly and you do not want your money sitting in the savings account, making puny 0.90% or in your brokerage account making 0.001% when you can make 3%?

A solution could be investing into commission free ETF paying dividends. To me, RWX REIT commission free ETF is the answer to that question. Of course, you need to verify with your broker whether they offer a commission free ETFs and which pay dividends.

RWX is one which does that. I can buy a single stock and pay nothing on top of my purchase price and the fund pays 2.9% annual dividend. Now, anytime I receive a cash or contribute to my ROTH IRA account I buy RWX. I do that as long as I save $1,000. Once the total market value of RWX in my portfolio is $1,000 or more, I sell shares of RWX and buy my desired stocks. A few weeks ago I used this strategy to purchase COP stock.

Dividends received

Last week, I received dividends from the following stocks:

AGNC American Capital Agency $31.02
MA MasterCard $2.56

These dividends increased my free cash in my account to a level allowing me to buy one share of RWX.

RWX new purchase

For tomorrow (Monday 11th, 2015) I placed a buy order to buy one share of RWX. After the purchase, I will own 14 shares and my current market value will be $579.28. I will be half way to saving the desired $1,000 limit for a new stock purchase. While waiting to save the rest, I will collect 2.9% dividend.

RWX is not a dividend investment to me. It is a cheap saving vehicle, since I do not use a DRIP.

Why I do not use the DRIP?

I want to be free in choosing my next stock purchase and use all collected dividends and contributions to do that. With a DRIP, I will be limited to investing contributions only. And I do not want that.

What do you think about this strategy? How do you deal with little cash in your account? Do you invest it or let it sit until you accumulate enough to buy a new stock?
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
4 Comments



Posted by Martin May 03, 2015
2 Comments



 




Stocks to buy in May 2015


April finished surprisingly well and stocks I selected for April mostly rallied. If you bought those stocks at the beginning of April, you would end up with 7.32% profit. That’s not bad considering how volatile the market is these days and that investors are expecting the market to crash.

I created a screener which browses my dividend stocks watch list consisting of about 200 dividend stocks (there are a few growth stocks too). Every month the screener selects stocks which are undervalued based on their P/E, PEG, current earnings and future earnings, and forward P/E among others and assigns a rank to each stock. The first 30 stocks are then selected for my portfolio.

I buy those stocks in my Motif Investing account and rebalance every month by removing stocks which are no longer on the selected stocks list and add new stocks. You can see the April selection here.

I also use the screener to buy stocks in my ROTH IRA account. Unlike at Motif investing where I can buy fractional stocks and thus the entire portfolio of 30 stocks at once, in my ROTH IRA account I typically select a stock with the highest rank to add and invest the entire amount into that one stock.

For example, in April I could add a new stock into my ROTH IRA account as I saved $1,000 amount (a minimum amount to minimize negative effect of commissions). To decide which stock to buy I looked at my screener result and found out that ConocoPhillips (COP) had the highest rank as the most undervalued stock. So, I bought the stock.

And here is a new selection for May 2015 which I am also using to rebalance the motif in my Motif Investing account:

 

You can buy this motif if you want if you open an account with Motif Investing. Then you can buy the entire portfolio the same way as a mutual fund – you buy all positions at once with minimum $250 investment. You will be buying fractional shares if you do not have large amount of money.

As I mentioned above, I rebalanced the “Undervalued Stocks” motif removing stocks no longer valued as “undervalued” such as VNR (+14.00% gain), NGLS (+13.30% gain), MSFT (+18.75% gain), BSMX (-5.72% loss) and replacing them with TIS, MBT, PCH, and GME. I also trimmed gains achieved in other stocks and reallocating to those less performing to bring the entire portfolio to equal weight balance.

 

 

 

I purchased this motif myself to show confidence in my stock selection. You can open your account too and if you start investing, you will receive a $150 bonus from Motif Investing.

I am rebalancing this motif every month. Let’s see, how well this portfolio will do at the end of the year.

Good luck to all of you!
 

Previous selection :

Stocks to buy in January 2015
Stocks to buy in February 2015
Stocks to buy in March 2015
Stocks to buy in April 2015
Stocks to buy in June 2015

 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Page 111 of 206« First...8090100«109110111112113»120130140...Last »


This site has been fine-tuned by 14 WordPress Tweaks