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Making 45% Annually Trading Options Against Dividend Growth Stocks
How Will a Tax Overhaul Impact Business Activity?
Current proposals between the House and the Senate to provide much-needed relief to middle-class Americans have gained traction in recent weeks after the Senate voted in favor of tax reform. It’s important appreciate the importance of tax reform in the US – the world #1 biggest economy. According to the Republicans, tax savings will amount to $1,200 per household of 4, with a median income of around $59,000. Based on proposals, the standard deduction will rise to $12,000, meaning that tax will not have to be paid on the first $12,000 if itemized deductions are not made. Additionally, the child tax credit will be raised to $1,600, as well as a provision for elderly parents valued at up to $300.
However, the biggest changes in the current proposals come in the form of corporate taxes. The Federal tax rate is currently 35% for corporations, and if the House and Senate can agree, that rate will be dramatically reduced to around 20% – 22%. A big part of President Trump’s campaign promise was to get US companies to repatriate foreign-based earnings to the US. It is estimated that trillions of dollars are ‘parked’ offshore, and Trump is trying to get these companies to bring it back to the US for a once off tax rate of 12%. The question as to whether these tax proposals will generate increased employment prospects in the United States, and help to drive up wages remains to be seen.
· Tax Stimulus May Translate into Higher Employment Figures
According to Republicans, there is no doubt that a decreased tax burden on US companies will allow them to pay more in wages, hire more American workers, and increase their profitability and investment in the US economy. Across the aisle, opponents of these tax proposals do not believe that all the repatriated earnings will filter through the US economy. They believe that shareholders will benefit by way of increased dividends and companies will use that money for share buybacks. The tax reform proposals are not without their bugbears. The three thorniest issues include rules regarding property taxes, mortgage interest deductions, local and state tax deductions.
All the state and local tax deductions will be eliminated according to the new tax proposals, but property taxes can be deducted up to a value of $10,000. Existing mortgages are grandfathered into the tax proposals, but new mortgages will be subject to interest-rate deductions that will have a limit of $500,000. All the hullabaloo currently taking place around tax reform is only just getting started. Lobbyists, tax preparers, legislators and opponents/proponents will be going head-to-head to ensure that everybody gets a little bit of what they want before it is signed into law.
· What Experts Are Saying
Olsson Capital finance analyst, Montgomery P. Bellwether Sr., is expecting windfall trading activity on financial stocks in 2018,
‘Since 2015, there has been a degree of cautious optimism about financial stocks in the markets. This was driven in part by quantitative tightening at the Fed. The Fed FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has bumped up interest rates by 25-basis point several times, allowing the federal funds rate to steadily rise to its current level. Increasing interest rates bode well for banks and financial institutions that typically generate their profits through loaning out money. Every 25-basis point increase is effectively an additional guarantee that bank stocks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo & Company, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will be strong contenders in 2018. Now, we have the dual benefit of added momentum from deregulation of the banking sector (reduced capital cushions), and lower corporate taxes to as low as 20%. If all these measures come to pass, it will be the perfect storm for investors waiting to cash in on bank stocks in the New Year’
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5 Reasons a Degree in Accounting Provides the Most Versatile Career
There was a time when people viewed accountants with disdain, often making jokes about the high school nerds growing up to become accountants with their thick-framed eyeglasses and pocket protectors. That’s no longer the case. Today, the world recognizes the need for qualified accountants, and that has opened up a whole world of opportunities who choose to pursue an education in accounting. Here are just a few reasons you may want to consider this career move.
Everyone Needs an Accountant
There will never be a shortage of accounting jobs because every single business needs an accountant. From Hollywood film studios to east coast hospitals, everyone needs accounting staff. As more complex laws regulate how businesses record their financial transactions, the field of accounting will continue to grow. Even if your true passion lies elsewhere, accounting skills relate to multiple careers, so your early accounting jobs can be used as stepping stones to something greater. You can branch out and even select jobs based on your geographical preferences.
Analytical Minds are Prized
More than ever, those skilled in math, logic, and statistics are highly sought after in the business world. Certainly, balancing the books is the most widely known function of an accountant, but accountants also manage pay for employees and ensure all of the company’s taxes are paid on time. In this way, the accountant is vital to keeping any business solvent and operating.
Work Part-Time, Earn Full-Time
Typically, a CPA (Certified Public Accountant) worked hardest during tax season, which is just January through April. This is a high-pressure period, but, for many in this line of work, it does come with benefits. The remaining eight months of the year can be spent working fewer hours or even taking extended time off altogether. The free time can be used to relax or to pursue another area of interest. Tax season usually can earn an accountant a full year’s salary, so that gives him or her the financial backing to pursue a hobby or a passion for the arts.
Career Flexibility
If you want to have a lot of options in your career path, accounting is a good fit. As mentioned earlier, almost every industry needs accountants, but you can even move beyond that. While earning your accounting degree, you will have also learned business management principles. This will allow you to branch into a variety of other careers in business if you find that accounting isn’t what you want to be doing. There are also a variety of functions that accountants can be involved in, from investments to financial projections, to bookkeeping.
Opens Up a Host of Opportunities
From lateral transfers to promotions, starting out in accounting can open more doors for you within your company. While your skills allow you to branch out into other areas, performing well as an accountant can promote you to other business positions naturally. Many accountants who have moved up to Chief Financial Officer were later promoted to CEO (Chief Executive Officer), proving that an accounting degree provides a vast potential for advancement.
Whether you choose to make a career out of accounting or use it to launch a career in a related field, getting started with a degree in accounting can provide anyone with a high level of career diversity. As you gain experience and establish your career, you may be able to choose your hours, the type of industry in which you work, or your geographical location. The nature of an accounting career provides opportunities that are only limited by your personal preferences and desires. This may be just the opportunity you need to advance in your life.
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How Does Today’s Politics Affect My Investments?
When New York billionaire Donald Trump was surprisingly elected President of the United States in 2016, major stock exchanges around the world immediately reacted to the news. Wall Street was not in session when the first reports of a major election upset were broadcast; however after-hours trading declined sharply that night. Across the Atlantic, European stock markets plummeted, and a similar situation was observed in Tokyo; however, by the time most of the votes were counted the next morning, the overnight losses were reversed, and Wall Street had a bullish trading session.
The investment lessons from November 2016 underscored an important aspect of financial markets: they are clearly subject to political sentiment and behavioral economics. The initial tanking of the markets on election night was likely due to a feeling of uncertainty among traders; after all, statistical modeling predicted a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton. The bullish run on Wall Street the next day could be explained by traders feeling relieved that the controversial campaigning had come to an end; moreover, traders were likely “buying on the dip,” which means taking advantage of lower overnight prices.
· Political Feelings and Stock Portfolios
In 2010, economists from the University of Texas and the University of Southern Mississippi published the results of a longitudinal study that looked into how political sentiment and optimism impact investment decisions. One interesting result gleaned from the study is directly related to risk tolerance: if you keep up with local news while your political party holds the White House or a Congressional majority, you are more likely to load up your portfolio with riskier stocks, and you will prefer shares from American companies.
· The Herd Instinct
In times of political instability, global markets tend to react negatively, but these situations involve more than just reasoning. Let’s say your stock portfolio is loaded with shares of major oil companies; if you learn about a government corruption scandal in Saudi Arabia, you will probably think about selling some of these stocks and reducing your risk, and you will hardly be the only one doing so. Even if political analysts determine the scandal to be nothing to worry about, institutional investors may see an opportunity to take short positions, and seasoned traders will do the same. This is known as the “herd instinct;” not everyone will believe that the scandal will interfere with oil production, but they will certainly follow the actions of the majority.
· What Should You Do?
But knowing what how the political situation affects your investments doesn’t mean you know how to act. It does give you the tools to anticipate changes and can help you figure out what you need to do. It is important to establish your goals for your investments so that you know what you should do if there is another upheaval like the one in November of 2016. Once you know what your goals are, make sure you keep up on the news at all levels, from local to international. Being aware of what is going on can inform your financial decisions and help you figure out the best time to buy or sell your investments.
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What Will The Stock Market Look Like in 20 Years?
If anyone could completely predict what the stock market will look like in twenty years, you might as well name them Nostradamus and hand them all the money in the world right now. Every market investor knows that it is not possible to predict the movements or changes in the market with one-hundred percent accuracy. The best that we can hope for is to make informed and educated guesses and just wait to see what happens.
· What The Greatest Investor In The World Thinks
There is no reason to be concerned about the markets says the Oracle of Omaha (aka Warren Buffet). In a September article on CNN Money, he predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will hit one million within the next one-hundred years. This is a bold statement given that the market currently fluctuates between roughly twenty and twenty-five thousand. All of this goes to show that Buffet believes in world capitalism, and he does not see it going away anytime soon.
· China Will Continue To Shine
It happened without much fanfare, but China took over the top of the list for the world’s largest economy in 2014. It was something that had been predicted for some time, but many still feel as though they live in a reality that no longer exists. It is simply not the case that the United States is the world’s largest economy. With this dynamic shift, the United States has to take a back seat so to speak to some of the economic agenda setting and policy making of China.
The two countries are very much tied to each other economically, so what happens in one will likely be mirrored in the other. This could make for an interesting dynamic that keeps investors guessing.
· Are We In A Bubble?
Perhaps we are in a bubble in the market right now. There are certainly more signs that we are in a bubble than not. Still, twenty years is a long time frame to take a look at. The market increases in value through most ten year periods, let alone twenty years.
It is reasonable to assume that in twenty years the stock market will be higher than it is today. This year or next year may be a down year (perhaps even a big one!), but the overall trajectory of the market is to continue to climb. All investors, particularly those with a long time horizon for their investments should consider what kind of returns they may see after twenty years.
Resources
Stock Market on Verge of a Melt-Up
Top 9 Economic Predictions for the Next 10 Years
Beco Life Insurance Settlements
DOW Will Hit 1 Million in 100 Years
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November 2017 results
November 2017 is over and it is time once again to review my accounts and performance.
As of today, I manage four accounts (my own) and one client account. Here is a list of accounts I manage and review in my monthly reviews her on this blog:
TD Ameritrade – trading account, taxable
IRA – retirement account, pre-tax deferred, former 401k account
ROTH IRA – trading account, after-tax deferred
Lending Club – P2P lending, taxable
November 2017 was extremely good month and I made good income trading options. Let’s take a look at each account individually:
· ROTH IRA account:
I am polishing this account to bring it up to follow my 2018 options strategy I published yesterday. That means that I am bringing my options trading in line with the strategy, stop trading options against stocks not in my watch list and I also will be removing non-compliant stocks from the portfolio.
I started doing this by removing PSEC, and LGCY. Other stocks I plan on keeping for now, but only a few will be used for further accumulating (only those which are in my watch list).
My options trading in the ROTH was limited to available cash and I only made $125 dollars in premiums and $87.09 in dividends. It is in line with my previous performance and in the coming months I expect this to improve and grow my income which will be used to purchase new shares or accumulate and re-invest in options trading as per my strategy.
| November 2017 net-liq: | $23,020.51 ▲ | (up by $161.64 0.71%) |
| November 2017 dividends: | $87.09 ▼ | (down from previous $88.60) |
| November 2017 options: | $125.00 ▲ | (up from previous -$4.04) |
| XIRR: | 9.01% ▼ |
Monthly dividend Income:
My dividend holdings:
· TD account:
Trading account was very successful in November 2017 and we generated nice income from options. We continue cleaning the account from bad trades and use the income proceeds to do so (for example in December we may use November income to close some bad positions and offset the loss). We will also bring this account up to our strategy rules but it will take longer to do it. We are taking only a few trades, mostly rolling or adjusting the trades as needed. No active trading as of now.
| November 2017 net liq: | $25,067.45 ▼ | (down by $115.43; -0.46%) |
| November 2017 options: | $2,094.64 ▲ | (up from previous $523.34; 8.36%) |
| XIRR: | -22.81%% ▲ |
Month-to-moth trading results
(The red dots on the chart indicate income estimate, blue bars actual earnings.)
We are presenting you our month-to-month business performance review:
· Lending Club
Lending Club is still showing one note delinquent which still keeps me annoyed. But I decided to give it a try so I will continue the course and see if it really makes any sense to invest in P2P. But I am refusing to put more money against this vehicle. I deposited $500 dollars and that’s all I am willing to play with as of now unless proven that it makes sense. If even after losses from delinquent borrowers the account resumes its growth then I might consider adding more money to it.
As of today, I consider it a lost case. Still.
| November 2017 net liq: | $499.41 ▲ | (up by $2.17 0.44%) |
| November 2017 interest: | $8.89 ▲ | (up from previous $5.17) |
| XIRR: | -7.94% ▲ |
· IRA Account
I started trading this account in October 2017 and I am already trading it according to my rules mentioned in my yesterday’s post. So trading is smooth and profitable.
I want to reach the growth rate of my former 401k account and grow faster than that. I hope, I will be able to do it. As of now, after two months of trading, my former 401k CAGR was 24.84% after 9 years in the plan, and the rolled IRA’s CAGR is 16.72% after two months in the account. I consider it a not bad result so far. Let’s see how next month will do.
| November 2017 net liq: | $88,574.19 ▲ | (up by $979.33 1.12%) |
| November 2017 options: | $2,567.00 ▲ | (up from previous $313.00) |
| CAGR: | 16.72% ▲ |
· Conclusion
My outlook for December 2017 is still bullish (in fact, I think the whole year 2018 will be a strong bullish rally, unless the economic expansion changes).
Lately, I had a discussion at Stocktwits… Sometimes very “interesting” and fiery with all the crystal ball owners.
They drive me crazy.
And I think, I am becoming and old fart, grumpy one (the picture in my profile is about 10 years old, that’s when I was young and handsome). Sometimes I like to tease them for their art (which I call a coloring book for kindergarten kids – that makes them furious as they spent hours and hours creating their charts and I downgrade it to a coloring book). But lately it makes me allergic to all sort of predictions. They are in fact worthless.
It took me two years to grasp the psychology of trading (and I still think I am not there as it is an evolving process), and by the way, watch the recent Bitcoin mania closely as you are witnessing craziness and idiocy live right in front of you, you no longer need books to read about a crash in 1932, 1987, 2003, 2008… it is all happening again, so watch it closely and learn from it.
So, what matters in the market?
It doesn’t matter what the market does or wants to do and what the so called gurus think the market will do tomorrow or in the next five years.
What matters is that you know what you will do when Mr. Market throws at you any of his/her obstacles. Always have a plan what to do and minimize a loss or avoid it whatsoever.
Trade what you see and not what you think may happen (some go even further and say what “will” happen). It doesn’t matter how long we are in a bullish trend, it doesn’t matter what the PE of the market is, or what the current valuation is (because what is expensive today, can become even more expensive tomorrow – again, just look at Bitcoin), or if a trend lasts 2 years or 20 years – it all means absolutely nothing.
What means/matters a lot is that you know what to do when the music stops… And this is the hardest part of trading! You see it happening and you stop believing what you see, you get frozen and paralyzed and you lose it.
Many spend hours drafting their charts predicting reversals and when the reversal happen they still miss it. Don’t be one of them.
As long as we see this improvement there is no need to be selling your stocks on valuation. Instead, buy every dip you can.
What do you expect from the stock market in December? What is your strategy for the rest of the month/year?
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Dividend CCCs Link
Over time my trading strategy evolved. I went from chasing high yield to chasing high options premiums and now I realized that it is all futile. And dangerous.
So, I am now in a position that I am OK collecting a few dollars every month or week as these small payouts will compound and grow large. It is more important for me now to preserve my account and keep trading.
Before, when trying to sell options I thought selling options to collect $15 dollars premium is not worth it. So I was chasing big premiums such as $400 dollars. Today, I am sitting on a few trades stuck in them, trying to roll them to get out as a winner, or close them and take huge losses.
I was thinking that selling options against good quality stocks and collecting only $15 dollars per trade is worthless so I took high flying stocks such as US steel (X), or TECK, or LULU, MNK (fortunately, I am out of this one), or WYNN… All bit me hard for being greedy.
On the other hand all my small premium trades against good quality stocks such as JNJ, T, BAC, BA, O, etc. are all performing well and keep bringing small dollars every week or month.
Just in the first week of December 2017 I could make over $700 dollars in premiums trading these “little”, lazy stocks! And I keep trading in lieu of sitting on my hands and waiting for those bad stocks to come along so I can get out of those trades.
I do not know if this is something you need to learn the hard way because we do not listen the experienced traders or it is just me stubbornly trying to prove to everyone that I can do better.
Many times in the last year or two, even in this extremely bull market when everyone makes money, I still had a few occasions where the stock position gave a hard time. It could be a hard time to upside or downside. And I realized that it was the high flying stocks which were the culprits. Never positions against good dividend blue chips.
And then I came to realization that I needed to change my strategy a bit. Modify it. Trade safely and not chase premiums at all cost as sometimes the “all cost” can be very costly.
I therefore modified my strategy to trade put options against dividend growth stock – dividend aristocrats (or Champions). I allow for a few exceptions using dividend contenders or Challengers, but mostly stay with good high quality stocks even though the premiums collected will be lower.
· My 2018 Options Strategy
My stock selection process and trading strategy is now as follows:
1) Choose 30 shares from the Dividend Champions list.
2) Select 30 shares from the list which offer options, weekly, or monthly, and have enough put and call strikes available.
3) Select stocks which offer min. $15 premium on as short day to expiration (DTE) as possible (ideally 7 – 10 days or more)
4) Check stock list regularly (ideally monthly) and when any stock is removed from the list, remove the stock from watch list, sell all positions and stop trading options against the stock.
5) Sell puts against these stocks.
6) Roll put options to roll assignment as much as possible, if rolling is not feasible, accept assignment.
7) Once assigned, keep the stock, collect dividends.
8) Start selling covered calls.
9) Roll calls up (or down) as much as possible to avoid assignment.
10) When rolling is not feasible or possible, accept assignment and sell the stock.
11) Rinse and repeat.
Use the above process to build a strong dividend stocks portfolio with these rules:
12) Use 50% of options proceeds (income) to buy dividend champions stocks either directly (if not enough cash yet available) or via in the money puts and assignment.
13) If the monthly income from options is higher than $1,000 dollars, use 50% and buy shares of dividend champions which are in a correction mode.
14) If the monthly income from options is less than $1,000 dollars, use 50% of 6 months combined income to purchase dividend champions. In this case, purchase stocks in August for January – July combined income; and in January for August – December combined income.
15) Reinvest dividends either via DRIP or direct reinvestment.
16) Sell covered calls against these dividends only when a CC can have strike above the cost basis so if the stock is called away it is for a gain and not a loss.
To be able to follow my rules above, mainly the proper stock selection to trade, I placed a Dividend Champions link on my blog menu. I will be updating this list every month as much as possible, or at least once or twice every year so when a stock in my watch list is removed I can react and remove it from my list too.
Note: The list is David Fish’s list and free for every dividend investor and free for non-commercial use. I would like to recognize and give thanks to David Fish for compiling and maintaining this list for small guys like you and me.
· My 2018 Watchlist
Using the process above, I created my watch list for 2018:
The list above (and the shares owned) are for my IRA account but I will be using the same watch list for my ROTH IRA and TD (trading) account.
I wish you all good luck in 2018 investing or trading!
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