For some people this is an example of greed and all bad in America. For some it is a dream and a goal to strive for.
Which side are you personally standing for?
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For some people this is an example of greed and all bad in America. For some it is a dream and a goal to strive for.
Which side are you personally standing for?
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
A week ago trading was about trend continuation. At least I saw it that way and I could see markets breaking thru marking this bull trend as intact. The entire last week markets were confirming my assumptions and all my accounts were growing. It was a filthy grow and I made quite nice cash.
Well, until Friday. Friday’s trading erased all my gains for the week and put back a question about the future of this trend. Although from a long term perspective, we are still in a bull market and there are no signs of changes yet.
Although, technically, I cannot see any significant red flags signaling reversal in trend (except one on my side) I can see one change, which may end up as a game changer.
Today we received unemployment data and these reveal a few things. One, it shows how out of reality Janet Yellen is when a few weeks ago she claimed that FED would start raising interest rates in six months, later she denied it and today data indicates that economy is probably, really, improving a bit and that they may actually start raising the rates.
Two, you can see a significant change in investors behavior. In the past they were accustomed to rising markets. The whole 2013 markets were rallying and investors jumped in any dip on the way. A complacency has never been bigger. Today it all has changed and investors are panicking whenever they see s slight dip or selling. They are afraid that markets are so extended than they no longer take a dip but run away. And that may be a significant change.
The result of this is a sideways market with last week attempt broken. Will today’s selling spark a broad sell off or is this just a blip and we are seeing a consolidation? What do you think?
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Do you remember the strategy testing I announced a while ago? Circa 6 months ago I finished a work on a screener programmed in Strategy Desk. And I decided to put it in a forward test before I commit my own money.
You can read the article about testing a new strategy here.
I ran a back test and the results were very promising. I would say, the results were so good, that I couldn’t believe them although I ran the back test twice.
So I decided to perform a forward test to see the results in real time and when handled manually by an average investor.
So, how the strategy works?
It is for all non-dividend investors. If you believe in growth stocks, this strategy is for you.
We developed a proprietary ranking system which selects stocks based on their fundamental and technical data. The stocks are then evaluated and a rank is assigned to each of them. Stocks which received 100 points rank are then selected for a purchase.
You will be receiving two type of newsletters. Every week you will receive an accumulation newsletter with the stock recommendations. Twice a year you will receive a re-balancing newsletter.
During the accumulation phase you will be buying the recommended stocks. You should buy the stocks in equal amount. For example, if you have $100,000 available to invest, you may decide to invest only $3,000 in each stock. Then you will be purchasing each stock for $3,000 only and not more.
Once you buy a stock, do not buy that stock again even though the next newsletter will recommend it again, unless specifically recommended in that newsletter. You will only purchase stocks you do not own. This is very important to prevent accumulating cash in stocks you already own and having your portfolio imbalanced. If you receive a newsletter with stock recommendation and you already own all of the recommended stocks, you will ignore the entire newsletter and wait for the next one.
Once you are fully invested you stop investing and wait for a re-balancing newsletter.
Every 6th month you will receive a re-balancing newsletter. This newsletter will tell you how to re-balance your portfolio and which stocks to drop from it. Once you sell all recommended stocks you will start accumulating new stocks except those you will continue holding unless specifically mentioned in the newsletter.
You will repeat this process as long as you will become rich.
Today, my account is going to be rebalanced. That means that I am going to sell all stocks, which no longer fit my screener criteria and start accumulating new stocks.
And what is my result? As of today, I achieved 18.25% gain and I am going to lock in those profits.
Check the account here:
Do you want to see what stocks I am adding and dropping from my portfolio? Well, I am giving away a free subscription to a newsletter. If you subscribe, every week you receive an email what stocks I am adding to my portfolio. You can follow my trades and see. It’s free – for now. After my test is done, the subscription will no longer be free, but my early subscribers will be grandfathered.
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The Federal Reserve gets a lot of credit for what passes as an economic recovery. Whether it deserves that credit, going forward the Fed has very little power to influence events because it is essentially out of ammo to further ease. The economy, meanwhile, is still lackluster, despite the central bank’s unjustified optimism.
The Fed cast a warm and fuzzy glow in January, when it predicted a pickup in economic growth, which it cited as its rationale for tapering its bond buying campaign, called quantitative easing (QE). And if that acceleration doesn’t happen in the near future?
Don’t worry: Wall Street will just shift its predictions for a growth resurgence to the second half of the year, as it’s done every year since about 2005 — if memory serves correctly. At this time of year, the Street always says that things will get better in the second half.
The revision of fourth-quarter 2013 gross domestic product growth of 2.8% is not enough of a reason to reverse the Fed’s QE policy, which seems to have less and less effect on the real economy, according to the central bank’s own research. The Fed says it will gradually taper its monthly bond buying, most likely ending it altogether late in the year. But the Fed’s new chief,Janet Yellen, adds that it reserves the right to change course and increase the purchases if the economy dips.
If the current first quarter does end up with say, 1.5% GDP growth, the bad weather in much of the nation will be a factor. But the weather effect is still amorphous enough not to reverse course. Once winter fades, there will inevitably be a rebound effect, so the bank may have to wait until the third quarter before it feels comfortable saying anything about the true core rate of growth (although it probably will cut its 2014 forecast by the June meeting).
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