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Posted by Martin February 06, 2013
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New trade – Armour Residential (ARR) put selling


Today I decided to sell a put against ARR. I sold July 20 7.5 strike put. If the stock rises above 7.5 it will expire worthless and I keep the premium ($84) and repeat the process. If the stock stays below $7.5 at expiration (or the owner of the put decides to execute it) I will buy 100 shares of ARR @ 6.7 a share.

02/06/2013 13:11:19 Sold 1 ARR Jul 20 2013 7.5 Put @ 0.84

Current time value: 0.50 per contract
Intrinsic value: 0.34 per contract




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Posted by Martin February 05, 2013
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A correction? Looks like not.


Yesterday I wrote about a possibility of market turning into correction or pullback. I was aware however about new money flowing into the market, although in slowing pace than a month ago (see the yesterday’s chart and Chaikin Money Flow; any value above 0.10 is considered as heavy buying, although it is slowing down). Today, it was proven that investors were jumping in buying the dip. The market stopped for a moment to take a rest. As I mentioned yesterday, the sell off could only be a bump on the upward road. The market can only rest a bit in a consolidation pattern before it shoots higher. The earnings season was very strong and it is what keeps investors buying stocks. In my opinion, I would be cautious, because it is now difficult to see what the market wants to do. So I am sitting aside and saving money for upcoming opportunities. I will be buying stocks at these levels only if they present themselves as a great buy – lower than fair value, great story, pullback, etc.




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Posted by Martin February 04, 2013
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A correction? Finally!

A correction? Finally!

Today, we probably have experienced a long anticipated correction to this extended market. It was a very impressive run, but in my opinion the stocks got expensive. Almost all indicators were in heavy overbought territory and a break was imminent. The question was, when. Was Monday the beginning of a correction? If so, I would say, finally!

I believe, and many stock charts confirm it, that no stock, no market goes straight up. It goes up in a seesaw trend, two steps up, one step down and so on. And if it happens going straight up as we witnessed a few weeks ago, then soon we would witness that one step down.

So can Monday be considered the beginning of a correction? It depends. From the pure technical analysis perspective the picture is not as clear as I would wish. The down candle stick wasn’t extended marking an exhaustion. So today’s trading may be just a little bump on the upward road.

If we however are in a correction, the next question would be, how deep and how long will it take? A million dollar question. As a trader I would care. As a dividend investor who wants to build an ever flowing income stream I do not care that much. I just take this as a new opportunity to add more shares into my portfolio for cheaper price.

Now the time has arrived to start watching my holdings and the stocks in my watch list even closely, because they may present great prices to pick up. For example, my latest trade was buying shares of Lorillard which I bought for 39.64 a share. With the correction when most of the stocks follow the entire market, I can add shares for even 38.20 a share (current support). Or even for less, if the stock breaks the support.

SPY

The chart above indicates my anticipation if I am correct in regards to selling in the market. Three indicators I use were in overbought levels and two of them already slowing down. Chaikin Money Flow, indicating whether money flow into the market or out of the market already turned down in January showing investors pulling their cash out of the market. The Ultimate Oscillator also started falling at the end of January. MACD followed today. You can see a slowdown and turning down.

Another indicator I like to watch is Fear and Greed index. Today’s chart shows the market dropping from extreme greed. We may potentially go all the way down to 40-ish level. How quickly and how fast, I do not know. It can be a slow volatile, bumpy process as we could see at the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011 or fast and almost straight drop as we could see at the end of 2012.

Fear & Greed Over Time

Such a drop however doesn’t mean a catastrophe. I actually see it as a healthy movement. A movement, which provides us with great prices while others are panicking. Also a drop to 40s doesn’t mean that the market will go that deep too. Fear & Greed index is more about volatility, rather than trends.

But how deep will we be going?

My first expectation would be where the support is. When you take a look at the SPY chart above, the market easily broke above a resistance level created by two major tops, one in September 2012, second in October 2012. We approached that resistance in December 2012 and corrected. Later, in January we broke thru without any resistance. But then the market slowed down. The new money flowing into the market dried up. The previous resistance became a support (see the green thick line at $146.85 level). My expectation, though, would be a pullback to that support. The next level would be at 144.73 (50 day MA) and worse case scenario at 140 level, but unless something terrible happens I do not expect going that far down.

Well, time will show. Get your muscles ready (read money), because we may see a great opportunity adding more shares. If you do not have your cash ready, you would have to wait and pass this opportunity.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin February 03, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #8


I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

This week I found the following interesting posts:


When To Buy And Sell Dividend Growth Stocks
Seeking Alpha

Net WorthAll About Interest

Credit Card Rewards – An Investment in Your Future?Brick By Brick Investing

This week I was extremely busy at work and had a very little time reading. The same will be in the next week.




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Posted by Martin February 02, 2013
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Website upgrade


OK, after about 5 years of having this blog I finally decided to upgrade and dress it up into a new coat. When ready, I will upgrade and some features of this blog may not be working anymore or for some time. I will be updating the new version once uploaded on the fly.




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Posted by Martin January 30, 2013
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New trade – Lorillard, Inc. (LO)


Today I added Lorillard, Inc.(LO) shares into my portfolio. It pays nice dividend with 23% dividend growth, 4 year dividend increase history and 21% annual expected return growth. My calculated fair value is at 41.33 a share and Morningstar lists their fair value at 41 a share. Their analysis expect better and more aggressive growth due to menthol and flavored cigarettes market where Lorillard dominates. The only risk this company is facing is EPA menthol market regulation, which is however highly unlikely due to mainly large tax impact (10 billion in taxes) to federal budget. I liked what I could read about this company, which currently undergo a 3:1 split (which may create another capital gain potential in the long run). From the technical analysis the stock is trading bellow 200 day MA but at 50 day MA support with narrow Bollinger Bands (the price break is imminent; the only question is which direction; and I believe it will be upside).

01/30/2013 10:40:00 Bought 25 LO @ 39.64

Total shares held as of today: 25
Estimated annual dividend: $51.75
Consecutive Dividend Increase: 4 years
Dividend yield today: 5.21%
Dividend 5yr Growth: 23.33%
Dividend paid since: 2008




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Posted by Martin January 30, 2013
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List of great high yielding dividend stocks


I was finally able to update my watch list of dividend stocks I consider worth to watch closely and potentially add to my portfolio. I had the watch list created in my Google Spreadsheet, but today I finally changed my watch list page to reflect the table. It currently shows my most recent list of great dividend payers.

The list is not a buy list however. It is a list of stocks I found on the internet or thru the screening process or even recommendations. For example my recent (as of this writing, 01/30/2013) addition to the watch list is a Morningstar web site recommendation. They published a featured stock – Corning (GLW) as a great company with maturing business and better than expected earnings. So I quickly checked the stock if it pays dividends and if so, what is the yield, dividend history, expected growth, etc.

I found that Corning pays 0.09 dividend per share which equals to 2.63% yield, the projected yield is 3.00%. The company has a 2 year history of consecutive dividend increase (which is nothing extra and not within my criteria, but interesting metric anyway). The dividend growth is at 30%, which may not be sustainable, but even if it will be slowing down over time, I am fine with it as long as the growth stays positive and above 6% in every consecutive year.

The valuation of the company is also interesting. The Morningstar lists the fair value to be $15.00 a share (the stock is currently trading at $12.00 a share). My own calculation indicates the fair value to be $18.88 a share and calculated expected annual growth at 26%. These metrics are quite impressive to me so I decided to put this stock to my watch list into a group of hot candidates for closer review before purchasing.

Similar hot candidates from my watch list currently are:

ABT
AGNC
EGAS
GD
KO
LMT
LO
NKE
NLY
NOC
PBI
RTN
TGT
TOT
UVV

Again, even though these are just “hot candidates”, they still are not a buy list, just a shortened list of stocks I want to analyze closely to decide whether to buy or not.

Check my watch list page to see the entire list of my dividend paying stocks.




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Posted by Martin January 29, 2013
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Trade adjustment – DMD covered call repair


As I wrote in my article “My DMD covered call and fiscal cliff? my covered call against DMD may go against me. I expected that to happen if the fiscal cliff happens. Well, fiscal cliff didn’t happen (yet, and maybe won’t happen at all), nevertheless DMD is not going in my favor.

Since the covered call I opened originally became already worthless I decided to buy it back and sell a new covered call farther in time at the same strike. This trade will bring another $40 into my account and builds a cushion for further repair process if the stock remains where it is or fall even lower.

So here are the trade adjustment details:

I bought back my old February 2013 $10 strike covered call at 0.05 and paid $5 and then I sold a new May 2013 $10 call at 0.45 and received $45.

If the stock manage to raise up above 10 strike the trade will look like this:

New Expiration date: 5/18/2013
New Strike: $10
Buy Back Old Call: $0.05
Buy Back Commission: $0.02
DMD May 18 2013 10.0 Call $0.45
New Commission: $8.78
Total New Expense: $862.53
   
New Expected Option Assignment: $1000.00
Option Assignment Fee: $19.00
Expected Proceeds: $981.00
   
New Expected Net Gain: $118.47
New Expected ROI: 13.74%

If the stock won’t go up and stays at current levels or falls lower and the above sold option becomes worthless again I may buy it back and sell another covered call and this time with a lower strike. That would ensure the stock will get called away with a profit. I will however post it as it happens.

Here is the original covered call trade on DMD.




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Posted by Martin January 28, 2013
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New trade – Targa Resources Partners LP (NGLS)


Today I realized a new purchase and added Targa Resources Partners LP into my portfolio.

01/28/2013 09:33:55 Bought 25 NGLS @ 39.56

Total shares held as of today: 25
Estimated annual dividend: $68.00
Consecutive Dividend Increase: 5 years
Dividend yield today: 6.93%
Dividend 3yr Growth: 7.00%*
Dividend paid since: 2007

* I wasn’t able to find data which would look reliable to me. I typically use two websites for this review. One was showing 30% 5yr average growth and the other N/A for that discrepancy I decided to use 3yr growth rate only.




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Posted by Martin January 27, 2013
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Why I dumped mutual funds from my investing strategy

Why I dumped mutual funds from my investing strategy

Mutual Funds I no longer believe in mutual funds. Earlier I thought they were a great investment vehicle, because they can provide diversification. But is it really such a significant trait of the funds that it can beat mutual funds flaws?

People, those slightly informed about investing, know that generally, 95% of mutual funds do not exceed or keep up with the overall market. Ninety five per cent of fund managers lose money compared to the benchmark. Those managers are the true suckers when speaking of investing.

There are less known facts about the mutual funds, which investment salesmen, advisers, mutual fund managers (Wall Street) and Washington will never tell you. Lets take a look at a few of them.

What is your mutual fund doing with your money?

Do you know how good or bad your mutual fund is in investing your money? How do you find out? How do you want to evaluate and research the funds fundamentals to find out whether it is making you money or losing you money, whether it is a money making machine or a loser? The only way you can rely on is the past performance, but how reliable it is?

How many times you have read in the news something like “the mutual fund managers rushing into stocks to chase the performance”?
Can you tell whether your fund manager is day-trading or following a long term investing strategy to save you money?

Turn over or churn is your enemy

When I started investing I hated a strategy to buy a stock and forget about it. I wanted to get rich quick by hitting a home run. I wanted to buy a stock which would multiply tenfold and made me rich. So I was trading. I refused to acknowledge that I was acting like a sucker. And I was losing money.

Truly I did hit a few home runs. But I was so obsessed with trading that I wasn’t even able to let that winner run and I sold it prematurely. Remember Netflix when it was trading at $44 a share? I bought it at that price before it skyrocket to 300-ish levels, but sold it way before it run in there.

Six years later I must humbly admit, that this was a sucker’s game. Unfortunately there are fund managers out there who play this game today. You can refer to those funds as actively managed funds.

Of course, you can find funds known as index funds or fund tracking one of the market indexes. So you would think these have a very little churn right? No they do not. When researching it, then you find out that their turn-over is at 90% or around that number. How is that happening? Any time you or investing public puts money into the fund or redeem money from the fund the fund manager must buy or sell shares to get money for you. This contributes to the overall churn of the fund. It won’t go away, you cannot escape it. And what are the consequences? Read further.

There are two things in the world you cannot escape – death and taxes

Have you seen a movie “Meet Joe Black”? Joe Black (Brad Pit) is helping Bill Parish (Anthony Hopkins) saving his company against Drew (Jake Weber) plotting to sell Parish Communications. At the board meeting Drew states:

Drew: We all know this deal is as certain as death and taxes.
Joe Black: Death and taxes?
Drew: Yes.
Joe Black: “Death” and taxes?
Drew: Yes.
Joe Black: What an odd pairing.

You cannot escape death and you cannot escape taxes. Unlike in certain accounts where your taxes are deferred, mutual fund heavily generates them.

I said there are two things you cannot escape, but I would add a third one – fees. You may be able to defer taxes if you hold your mutual funds in your ROTH IRA or IRA or 401k accounts, but in most cases you won’t defer fees.

Compared to you as individual investor investing in individual stocks, you can almost eliminate taxes on capital gains and limit fees to a very minimum. If you buy dividend paying stocks and leave them for 30 years in your account, you will only pay a fee when originating your purchase. No more fees and taxes as long as you hold. And since you can hold literally forever because it is the dividend income, not capital gain income which interests you, you only pay taxes on your dividend income. The difference in fees and taxes between this strategy and mutual fund with 150% turnover is tremendous.

Every mutual fund collect seamlessly a variety of fees which eat up gains you may have if any at all. Regular investor usually have no clue what fees the fund charges and how they affect the performance. The funny part is that the fund usually reports its performance without discounting fees and taxes. So if you read that your mutual fund gained 13% last year you may feel like a king of the world. The reality is however far from the bright future. When the fund discounts the annual management fee (expense ratio) , marketing and distribution fee (12-b fee), redemption fees, load fees you may end up with a loss or very low profit, which will be further destroyed by taxes and inflation.

If you compare this performance with investing on your own into individual dividend paying stocks then $1000 invested for 30 years in mutual funds would translate into $13,000 compared to $63,000 when invested into individual stocks.

Is diversification, mutual funds offer, worth it? In my opinion, the answer is a resounding no.

Conclusion

Because of mediocre performance, high taxes and fees charged by mutual funds I decided not to invest into mutual funds anymore. I believe, that good quality dividend paying stocks with long history of dividend payout and great dividend growth you can perform almost fivefold better than any of the mutual fund manager can ever dream of. Unfortunately I have to have mutual funds in my 401k account, since I have no choice in our plan. That’s why I contribute only the absolute minimum to get my employer’s match. The rest goes to my individual accounts where I invest into individual stocks only (and basic option strategies).




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