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Stryker Corporation (SYK)

Stryker Corporation  (SYK)

Stryker Corporation (SYK) is once again on my buy list with a target price at $70 per share. I reviewed the trend of the stock and the only thing which I do not like so far is that the stock was growing in price on drying volume.

SYK

So I decided to watch this stock for couple of days to see where the stock will go next. I also run my position sizing and risk control calculation with the following results:

With the buy price at $58.00 per share, total risk per the portfolio at 2% I can buy 37 shares. However that would increase my total exposure to the entire portfolio to 8.64% per this trade and this is what I am not willing to accept. So if I buy 17 shares only, my trade size still will be above $800 per trade and my total risk per trade will be less than 6% (5.95% to be exact) and this meets all my criteria for opening a new position. I will risk roughly $50 on this trade only and that is acceptable for me.

I am not buying yet, just adding this stock to my watch list to see what the next movement will look like. I would like to avoid a similar mistake I did with DeVry (DV) where I overlooked the price – volume behavior of the stock and had to be watching the stock falling down just right after I bought it.

When speaking about DeVry, I am still quite confident about this stock, since it still presents strong fundamental values, it broke up through 2-year resistance, so this pullback may actually be a great opportunity to either buy or add DeVry to your portfolio.




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Posted by MartZee March 17, 2010
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DEVRY (DV) searching for the new trade


Last two weeks I have been searching for a stock which would pass my new criteria and I would be able to open a new position. My screener has been shooting many candidates at me, but further screening blocked those stocks from buying them.

Recently I reviewed the following potential candidates for buying:

ACU; AKAM; BIG; BKE; BRCM; CMP; CPO; CSGS; DMND; DV; EDU; EMS; FSC; HGR; KED; MPAA; MWIV; OTEX; PETM; PTNR; TGI; THS; & TNK

All stocks were originally selected by my screener because of high Relative Strength (RS) and increasing institutional accumulation, however the next screening failed those stocks. They weren’t either trending properly or heavy insiders’ selling or didn’t pass screening of EPS, revenue, EPS growth etc.

Finally I was able to find a stock which showed on my screener and passed my further evaluation as a strong candidate: Devry (DV). It failed only in a few criteria such as insider selling, however since DV is a university I do not consider insider selling as a significant issue here. Also most of the selling was an option execution.

After DV passed my screening I calculated potential risk of the portfolio. Because this stock is quite expensive one the risk will be a bit higher initially. Nevertheless I decided to buy 12 shares of this stock as my initial position.

Why I am buying only 12 shares? By limiting the size of the position I am limiting my potential risk if the trade turns against me. If that happens I will lose only 52 dollars and my entire portfolio drops to $1998.26 of liquidation value and that is acceptable for me. I entered a buy order for tomorrow’s opening to buy 12 shares of Devry (DV).




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No new trades available


On Saturday I calculated my total portfolio risk based on my adjusted rules:

  • trade must be larger than $800 to lower the cost ratio when buying stocks
  • existing positions must be positive
  • or the total current risk exposure to stop loss must be less than 3%
  • or the total liquidation value of the portfolio must be larger than $2,000

Based on this I could open a new position without risking too much if all open trades turn against me. Previously I calculated the above conditions wrong and when all trades turned against me in January 2010 I lost almost 21% of my portfolio. With these new rules I shouldn’t lose so much anymore.

When calculating new risk I am looking at what my portfolio will look like WITH the new position if all turns against me.

Based on those rules I evaluated the following stocks:

AKAM, BRCM, CPO, HGR, MWIV, OTEX, PTNR, THS,

From the stocks above only Open Text Corp. (OTEX) was barely able to pass my further scanning and meeting criteria. It scored as a moderate buy candidate, creating new highs, however it didn’t pass my other criteria. By buying this stock at this time would increase the risk of my portfolio to almost 6% and drop my total value below $2,000. I decided not to buy at this time and stay aside unless a new candidate shows up. I also will need to save and deposit more money to allow new purchases.




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