Investing into Stocks - Hello Suckers!

Picks 04/12 – 04/16

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
none

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Stocks watched this week:

Ansys, Inc. (ANSS) Long
Stryker Corp. (SYK) Long

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]DV[/tag]	12	70.86	42.84	5.31	64.94	1.4800	-3.49
[tag]V[/tag]	10	93.50	93.50	11.07	87.93	1.4800	4.06

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -5.78%

New positions available to open: 2

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,168.60

Account value = $2,253.91 (without margin)

Buying power = $5,732.33

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 3.93%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2010 = 3.96%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -14.36%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -22.00%

The stock market retreated at the end of the week and some commentators say we are ready for a correction. We have experienced a short decline in January this year and since then the market has rallied almost without any interruption, so maybe the following week we may see some pullback to 50 day MA. Who knows, we will see at the beginning of the next week.

Nevertheless I am still watching my two potential candidates Ansys, Inc (ANSS) and Stryker Corporation (SYK). Stryker is now in about a month long consolidation and may break up to new 52 week highs. The volume is slightly higher than average and the stock still offers a promising gain. I didn’t have time to evaluate Ansys yet but it shows great results to me so far. I’ll see this Sunday.

My existing holdings were doing well particularly DeVry (DV) increased in price driven by institutional buying, improving rating, increased income statements, increased students’ enrollment in 2Q 2010 and good looking outlook for upcoming quarters. The stock recently gapped up and now may retreat trying to close the gap or it may hold it’s current level as traders feel confident about this stock and believe it will hold. Nevertheless if the stock pulls back it will offer another opportunity to buy this stock. As log as the US unemployment rate will be as high as it is now this stock may perform well.

Visa (V) is a great stock and it may rise up to $180 price level over the time. It will greatly benefit on improving economy when people start buying more and more using their plastic and it won’t matter whether it will be a credit card or a debit one. Recently the company benefited with debit cards very well. However the stock is quite volatile partially because of misconceptions I could see among investors considering this company losing money because of high defaults. This company is not involved in lending and this risk keeps it intact. The greatest risk is in economy performance rather than credit crunch itself as we could see people shifting their card usage from credit to debit. With both types of cards Visa is making the same amount of cash. High fluctuation however presents investors with great opportunity to buy this stock or be adding to their positions.

However, since both stocks are considered as aggressive growth stocks with high uncertainty I am watching them closely and try moving my stop loss carefully not to get kicked out too early, but not to increase a potential loss (or reduce profits) by holding too long. So stop management is crucial here. I moved my stop loss orders higher today.

Lending Club:

Debt notes

Available cash:	$0.00
In Funding Notes:	$0.00
Outstanding Principal:	$300.00
Accrued Interest:	$2.16
Account Total:	$302.16
Contributions this week:	$0.00
Weighted Average Rate:	11.71%
Expected Monthly Payments:	$9.86
Payments to Date:	$0.00
Principal Payments:	$0.00
Interest Payments:	$0.00
Late Fees Received:	$0.00

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.57	132.72	13.27	7.89	32
ATIPX	106.395	9.14	32.27	3.43	7.28	27
HISIX	26.918	7.31	-3.23	-1.62	4.56	5
SICNX	47.855	7.52	9.87	2.82	4.97	10
SWDSX	49.045	12.45	56.44	10.18	4.00	17
SWLSX	29.814	10.45	42.63	15.85	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
AOD	219.0	9.23	17.52	0.87	15.50	85
IGD	29.0	12.77	13.63	3.82	11.60	15

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,583.97	38%	57%
ETFs	2,391.70	20%	38%

Contribution this week: $0

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $6,300.38

Account value = $6,276.84

Dividends received in April 2010 = $3.63

Dividends received in 2010 = $80.44

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 1.28%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 2.62%

Dividends received lifetime = $164.56

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -0.37%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2010 = 0.99%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 4.78%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -2.29%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -7.35%

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Stryker (SYK) didn’t pass, will Ansys (ANSS) replace it?

Last night I ran my fundamental and technical check of Stryker Corporation (SYK) to see how it fits into my other requirements as a potential buy candidate. The previous day this stock showed up in my screener list as a strong candidate. Stryker as a medical equipment manufacturer expert in orthopedic products field showed great valuation at first. Its fair value at @70 a share indicates that this company is traded at a great discount with a buy price at 50.40 dollars and a target price at $100. The profit expectation could reach $50 a share and with buying 17 shares the profit expectation could reach 84% while risking only 6%. However my further screening criteria weren’t passed by this stock. Out of the total 14 points I assign to each screened fundamental ratio only 5 were passed.

That means that I am not rushing in buying this stock. I will keep it in my watch list instead and see what this stock will do and how it improves. I want to buy the best of the best of the best and because this stock didn’t pass my fundamental check I will stay on the conservative side of the trading or stock picking.

I then pre-checked another stock for further review. It is Ansys Inc. (ANSS). Ansys, based in Canonsburg, Pa., develops software solutions for design analysis and optimization. Using the company’s products, engineers can construct computer models of structures or processes to simulate performance conditions and physical responses to varying levels of stress, pressure, temperature, and velocity. Companies adopt Ansys software to accelerate a product’s time to market, reduce production costs, and optimize product safety.

This stock also popped up in my screen result list as a strong buy candidate. I checked its trending, one of my first pre-screen criteria if it makes any sense to continue in further screening at all.

So first I check 1-year chart to see what the stock is doing:

ANSS

From this chart, the stock shows strong uptrend, however the volume is a bit weaker than at the beginning of the trend. Then I take a look at 3-year trend, to see how the stock was trending in longer time frame:

ANSS

Even from this chart it is apparent that the stock is a great trend mover. I can ignore the recession period, since this was a global downturn and many even good stocks were driven down by the market. The most important factor here is that the stock was able to recover and resume the trend.

To make sure I am looking at this issue correctly I also want to check 5-year chart:

ANSS

A brisk look at this chart confirms that the stock is trending with some volatility and there fore providing a great opportunity to grow aggressively and make some money here. I can consider this stock as aggressive growth stock (with higher risk of course, which fits my strategy of this trading account and it makes this stock a good candidate for me). The only check which this stock didn’t pass is my requirement of making new 52-W high price, but this stock seems to have the strength to move there and meet the criteria and I am not buying yet. Another issue is low volume and actually drying volume, which signals that no new money are flowing into this stock. If I decide to buy an initial position I may consider a tight stop loss in case the trend will end.

So the stock passed my first screening, in general it passed my technical pre-screening and now I want to review its fundamental data. My goal is to buy fundamentally strong stocks, which have momentum for aggressive growth.

For fundamental check I use a set of numbers and ratios I want to check and for each passed ratio I assign a point. The highest points the better. Most likely I review 14 key ratios and I want at least 10 points to consider the stock passed. If it does, I buy this stock. If it doesn’t I may keep it in my list for future review or drop it and move on.

Since the stock is now declining in price I am not in rush and I will review fundamentals tomorrow.

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Posted by MartZee April 13, 2010
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money SYK DV DeVry Stryker Corporation gain stock stock price

DeVry (DV) regains its strength

DeVry (DV) gapped up today on the positive news. It is confirming its volatile attitude and strong growth type of stock. The strong uptrend remains intact driven up by institutional money and positive outlook of educational stocks although with some caution and good stop management in place. Today all educational companies rose after improved rating from analysts. First Oppenheimer changed its target price up to $75 per share and today Credit Suisse AG increased their rating to outperform and raised the target price to $75 too.

DeVry

If you are thinking of buying this stock, I would however wait for couple of days for the next development. The stock is now hyped up and tomorrow it may tend to go to close the gap and may fall down. I would like to see a confirmation of this break out. I would place a buy order a few ticks above today’s price high and lower it every day with the stock. if it continues falling and close the gap on high volume I wouldn’t buy, but if it turns back up, the stock should pick you up on its way up and provide you with some lift. Well, this is at least what I would do here.

DeVry

I am still watching Stryker Corporation (SYK) and as of today, it is down about 1%. I am planning on using similar strategy as what I said above in regards to DV. I will be trailing the buy order down with the stock price as long as the buy set up continues. The fair value of the stock seems to be at $72 a share so the stock has a potential for growth.

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Posted by MartZee April 13, 2010
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trading risk calculation SYK Stryker DV DeVry position sizing risk risk per trade risk exposure risk management risk control

Stryker Corporation (SYK)

Stryker Corporation (SYK) is once again on my buy list with a target price at $70 per share. I reviewed the trend of the stock and the only thing which I do not like so far is that the stock was growing in price on drying volume.

SYK

So I decided to watch this stock for couple of days to see where the stock will go next. I also run my position sizing and risk control calculation with the following results:

With the buy price at $58.00 per share, total risk per the portfolio at 2% I can buy 37 shares. However that would increase my total exposure to the entire portfolio to 8.64% per this trade and this is what I am not willing to accept. So if I buy 17 shares only, my trade size still will be above $800 per trade and my total risk per trade will be less than 6% (5.95% to be exact) and this meets all my criteria for opening a new position. I will risk roughly $50 on this trade only and that is acceptable for me.

I am not buying yet, just adding this stock to my watch list to see what the next movement will look like. I would like to avoid a similar mistake I did with DeVry (DV) where I overlooked the price – volume behavior of the stock and had to be watching the stock falling down just right after I bought it.

When speaking about DeVry, I am still quite confident about this stock, since it still presents strong fundamental values, it broke up through 2-year resistance, so this pullback may actually be a great opportunity to either buy or add DeVry to your portfolio.

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Picks 04/05 – 04/09

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
none

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]DV[/tag]	12	64.86	-29.16	-3.61	63.00	1.0500	-6.38
[tag]V[/tag]	10	92.52	80.20	9.49	86.81	1.5500	2.73

Contribution this week: $100

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -3.66%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,168.05

Account value = $2,168.60 (without margin)

Buying power = $5,493.27

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.03%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2010 = 0.03%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -17.60%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -24.02%

Lending Club:

Debt notes

Available cash:	$0.00
In Funding Notes:	$0.00
Outstanding Principal:	$300.00
Accrued Interest:	$1.44
Account Total:	$301.44
Contributions this week:	$0.00
Weighted Average Rate:	11.71%
Expected Monthly Payments:	$9.86
Payments to Date:	$0.00
Principal Payments:	$0.00
Interest Payments:	$0.00
Late Fees Received:	$0.00

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Bought 4.026 SWDSX @ 12.42

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.98	166.94	16.69	7.89	32
ATIPX	106.395	9.09	26.95	2.87	7.28	27
HISIX	26.918	7.36	-1.88	-0.94	4.56	5
SICNX	47.855	7.55	11.31	3.23	4.97	10
SWDSX	49.045	12.48	57.91	10.45	4.00	17
SWLSX	29.814	10.45	42.63	15.85	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
AOD	219.0	9.20	10.33	0.55	15.72	84
IGD	29.0	12.79	14.21	3.98	11.74	16

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,617.13	38%	57%
ETFs	2,385.71	20%	38%

Contribution this week: $50

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $6,215.59

Account value = $6,300.38

Dividends received in April 2010 = $0.00

Dividends received in 2010 = $76.81

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 1.25%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 2.61%

Dividends received lifetime = $160.93

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 1.36%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2010 = 1.36%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 5.17%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -2.19%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -7.01%

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Picks 03/29 – 04/02

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
none

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]DV[/tag]	12	64.79	-30.00	-3.72	63.00	1.1400	-6.38
[tag]V[/tag]	10	92.55	80.50	9.53	86.81	1.6500	2.73

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -3.81%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,062.69

Account value = $2,068.05 (without margin)

Buying power = $5,190.53

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.26%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 1.61%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -18.32%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -25.04%

My portfolio review

After a short period of January 19 to February 8 when the market corrected it was sprinting up high again. Recently it slowed down, however my indicators shows a positive divergence, so I am expecting the market continuing its run next week.

My holding of Visa (V) is doing well and after a short decline it turned up again and continues upwards. However Devry (DV) is declining sharply almost every day since I have added my initial position. It is getting close to its 50 day MA and my stop loss. I moved the stop loss higher to follow 50 day MA. If the stock breaks down through this support, I am done with this stock and moving on.

I do not understand this move and the only explanation is a profit taking or correction, because I couldn’t find anything wrong with this company. Let’s see the next week what the stock will do.

However I am analyzing new stocks for purchase and I am planing on opening a new position. Here are the stocks I am reviewing:

DLTR, FDO, FRM, G, GCO, HEI, IDC, MPAA, OSTK, RLRN, ROLL, TGI, & TNK

Lending Club

Recently I was looking for other investing opportunities and I came up with investing in debt notes. I found Lending Club as a good opportunity. Investing into debt notes is quite risky business, but I decided to give it a try. It can provide an average gain of 6% – 9%, which seems to me as a great deal. However a risk of delinquencies is present and may diminish your invested money. What I have read so far, the goal is to diversify your money among as many notes as possible, rather than purchasing a few large notes.

I invested $300 so far to probe this investing vehicle and I will be adding more funds over time up to $1,000 and see how good or bad deal investing into debt notes is. Here is the review of my Lending club account:

Lending Club:

Debt notes

Available cash:	$0.00
In Funding Notes:	$25.00
Outstanding Principal:	$275.00
Accrued Interest:	$1.01
Account Total:	$301.01
Contributions this week:	$100.00
Weighted Average Rate:	11.71%
Expected Monthly Payments:	$9.09
Payments to Date:	$0.00
Principal Payments:	$0.00
Interest Payments:	$0.00
Late Fees Received:	$0.00

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.49	126.04	12.60	7.89	32
ATIPX	106.395	9.09	26.95	2.87	7.28	28
HISIX	26.918	7.32	-2.96	-1.48	4.56	6
SICNX	47.855	7.49	8.44	2.41	4.97	10
SWDSX	45.019	12.32	50.47	10.01	4.00	16
SWLSX	29.814	10.31	38.46	14.30	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
AOD	219.0	9.08	-15.33	-0.77	15.86	84
IGD	29.0	12.72	12.18	3.41	11.79	16

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,510.66	38%	57%
ETFs	2,357.40	20%	38%

Contribution this week: $0

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $6,102.94

Account value = $6,165.59

Dividends received in March 2010 = $57.69

Dividends received in 2010 = $76.81

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 1.25%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 2.61%

Dividends received lifetime = $160.93

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 1.34%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 3.62%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 3.79%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -2.63%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -8.32%

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Picks 03/22 – 03/26

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
none

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]DV[/tag]	12	66.26	-12.36	-1.53	62.64	1.0413	-6.91
[tag]V[/tag]	10	90.25	57.50	6.80	86.81	1.7743	2.73

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -3.77%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,060.82

Account value = $2,062.69 (without margin)

Buying power = $5,178.00

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.09%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 1.35%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -18.53%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -25.37%

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Bought 6.793 SICNX @ 7.36

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.72	145.24	14.52	7.89	33
ATIPX	106.395	9.09	26.95	2.87	7.28	28
HISIX	26.918	7.14	-7.81	-3.90	4.56	5
SICNX	47.855	7.35	1.74	0.50	4.97	10
SWDSX	45.019	12.25	47.31	9.38	4.00	16
SWLSX	29.814	10.24	36.37	13.53	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
AOD	219.0	8.99	-35.04	-1.75	15.84	84
IGD	29.0	12.85	15.95	4.47	11.84	16

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,513.07	38%	58%
ETFs	2,341.46	20%	38%

Contribution this week: $50

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $6,083.91

Account value = $6,102.94

Dividends received in 2010 = $27.70

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 0.45%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 1.83%

Dividends received lifetime = $111.82

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.31%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 2.56%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 2.73%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -2.95%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -9.25%

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Picks 03/15 – 03/19

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
DeVry, Inc. (DV) Bought 12 DV @ 67.29

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]DV[/tag]	12	67.28	-0.12	-0.01	62.64	1.1500	-6.91
[tag]V[/tag]	10	88.84	43.40	5.14	86.81	1.6800	2.73

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -3.69%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,115.00

Account value = $2,060.82 (without margin)

Buying power = $5,173.63

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -2.56%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 1.26%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -18.61%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -25.67%

Visa (V) turned down and started its correction. It lost almost all gains from the last week. Let’s see whether it recovers the next week or continues down to test its support. If it continues further down I may be stopped out as well.

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Bought 219 AOD @ 9.15

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.63	137.73	13.77	7.89	33
ATIPX	106.395	9.07	24.83	2.64	7.28	28
HISIX	26.918	7.14	-7.81	-3.90	4.56	6
SICNX	41.062	7.35	1.81	0.60	4.97	9
SWDSX	45.019	12.23	46.41	9.21	4.00	16
SWLSX	29.814	10.21	35.48	13.19	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
AOD	219.0	9.00	-32.85	-1.64	15.84	84
IGD	29.0	12.51	6.09	1.71	11.84	16

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,451.71	38%	57%
ETFs	2,333.79	20%	39%

Contribution this week: $0

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $6,050.42

Account value = $6,033.91

Dividends received in 2010 = $27.70

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 0.46%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 1.85%

Dividends received lifetime = $111.82

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -0.27%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 2.26%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 2.43%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -3.09%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -9.60%

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Posted by MartZee March 17, 2010
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AKAM BRCM CPO HGR MWIV OTEX PTNR THS BKE CMP DMND EDU EMS FSC TGI TNK PETM MPAA KED ACU BIG CSGS DV

DEVRY (DV) searching for the new trade

Last two weeks I have been searching for a stock which would pass my new criteria and I would be able to open a new position. My screener has been shooting many candidates at me, but further screening blocked those stocks from buying them.

Recently I reviewed the following potential candidates for buying:

ACU; AKAM; BIG; BKE; BRCM; CMP; CPO; CSGS; DMND; DV; EDU; EMS; FSC; HGR; KED; MPAA; MWIV; OTEX; PETM; PTNR; TGI; THS; & TNK

All stocks were originally selected by my screener because of high Relative Strength (RS) and increasing institutional accumulation, however the next screening failed those stocks. They weren’t either trending properly or heavy insiders’ selling or didn’t pass screening of EPS, revenue, EPS growth etc.

Finally I was able to find a stock which showed on my screener and passed my further evaluation as a strong candidate: Devry (DV). It failed only in a few criteria such as insider selling, however since DV is a university I do not consider insider selling as a significant issue here. Also most of the selling was an option execution.

After DV passed my screening I calculated potential risk of the portfolio. Because this stock is quite expensive one the risk will be a bit higher initially. Nevertheless I decided to buy 12 shares of this stock as my initial position.

Why I am buying only 12 shares? By limiting the size of the position I am limiting my potential risk if the trade turns against me. If that happens I will lose only 52 dollars and my entire portfolio drops to $1998.26 of liquidation value and that is acceptable for me. I entered a buy order for tomorrow’s opening to buy 12 shares of Devry (DV).

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Picks 03/08 – 03/12

Trading Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Stocks bought or added to portfolio this week:
none

Stocks dropped from portfolio this week:
none

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Stop	ATR	Risk to stop (%)
[tag]V[/tag]	10	93.25	87.50	10.36	86.81	1.6100	2.73

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -3.04%

New positions available to open: 2

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,067.57

Account value = $2,115.00 (without margin)

Buying power = $6,105.60

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 2.29%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 3.92%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = -16.47%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -24.80%

Visa (V) moved higher for this week again. It looks like the stock is running for its 100 dollar mark and then it will probably correct down. It is creating new 52 week highs and it moved into a positive teritory. I could move my stop loss higher from previous one and total risk to stop loss raised to +2.73%. The total exposure risk increased because of large spread between the current liquidation value and the value to stop loss. However, since Visa is in positive territory and even though it turns against me I will not end up with a loss here, but break even or with a small gain. However I am going to hold this stock longer.

This allows me to open new positions. I can open 2 new positions. For this purpose I am going to evaluate the following stocks from my watch list:
BKE, CMP, DMND, EDU, EMS, FSC, TGI & TNK.

On Monday I might buy one or two of the above listed stocks. It however depends on the further screening I am going to perform over the weekend and how such a purchase affects my current risk. I will inform you about it once a stock is selected.

ROTH IRA Account:

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Bought 4.163 SWDSX @ 12.01

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

NTF Mutual Funds

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Port. (%)
AIGYX	83.472	13.42	120.20	12.02	7.89	33
ATIPX	106.395	9.08	25.89	2.75	7.28	28
HISIX	26.918	7.18	-6.73	-3.36	4.56	6
SICNX	41.062	7.38	3.04	1.01	4.97	9
SWDSX	45.019	12.10	40.56	8.05	4.00	16
SWLSX	29.814	10.14	33.39	12.42	1.63	9

Individual ETFs

Symbol	Qty	Last	Gain($)	Gain(%)	Div. Y(%)	Portfolio (%)
IGD	29.0	12.49	5.51	1.54	11.95	100

Individual stocks

Symbol

Qty

Last

Gain($)

Gain(%)

Div.
Y(%)

Portfolio
(%)

Account target and current allocation

Individual stocks	0	42%	0%
NTF Mutual funds	3,321.04	38%	57%
ETFs	363.08	20%	6%

Contribution this week: $2,150.00

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $5,900.42

Account value = $6,050.42

Dividends received in 2010 = $24.07

Portfolio dividends yield 2010 = 0.40%

Portfolio dividends yield lifetime = 1.79%

Dividends received lifetime = $108.19

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 2.54%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2010 = 2.54%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2010 = 2.71%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -3.03%

[tag]Portfolio Return[/tag] since inception: -9.36%

My tax return has arrived and I contributed it almost everything to my ROTH IRA account. On Monday I am purchasing Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F (AOD). Based on the rules, my minimum purchase of an individual stock or ETF can be $2,000 or more, but not less to mitigate the purchase costs. With 2,000 dollar purchase my commission will amount to less than 1% and that is acceptable. This is why I am saving smaller amounts to NTF (No Transaction Fee) mutual funds, because I can make as small purchase as $50 for free and as soon as I save enough to purchase an individual stock or ETF I will sell a portion of my mutual funds holdings and buy individual dividend paying stocks or ETFs.

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