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Posted by Martin February 15, 2015
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Market outlook for the next week


On Monday markets will be closed due to President Day observation. For this week we will see a short trading. However, the most important trading happened last week.

In my previous market outlook post I wrote about two patterns the market was about to attack – a wedge pattern and sideways channel.

Last week, the market broke up thru both patterns. It confirmed the break out the next day and marched up to its first resistance at 2094.

It smashed that resistance and create new all-time high!

We now need a confirmation for this break out and I am expecting this to happen next week. Well, to be clear, I am not expecting the confirmation to happen since I do not know whether it happens or not. I am expecting that the market will attempt to confirm it or fail it.

If the market confirms this break out we will have doors open to a new, strong bull run up. As one trader once mentioned, even bulls would be surprised by this bull trend.

If we fail to confirm this break out, the market may fall back down to 2000 level.

What is my bet on this? Since we broke two previous patterns, I would say we have a great chance to break this last resistance too.

This is changing my weekly bearish outlook to a bullish one. Long term, I am still bullish. Now I am bullish short term too.

What is my outlook for the next week?

Let’s take a look at the chart below:
 

SPX

Although everything can happen, I expect the market to continue going up. Tuesday trading may tell us the story, whether the week will be more bearish or bullish. We may see a pull back, we may see a new run up creating new ATH (all time high).

Nevertheless, I expect the market to move in the 2083 – 2104 range, unless unexpected bad or extremely good news override this expectation and move the market to its extremes.

Happy trading and investing!




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Posted by Martin February 12, 2015
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SPX 2005/2010/2105/2110 Iron Condor in good shape to expire


This morning I opened a new trade – Iron Condor against the S&P 500 (SPX). My strikes are 2005/2010 puts and 2105/2110 calls. I collected $30 credit for this trade. Although there are still two days left until expiration the trade is in good shape to expire worthless.

With Iron Condor you want the underlying to stay between the two spreads. An Iron Condor consists from two spreads – a bear call spread and bull put spread. As with a bear call spread, you want the price of underlying to stay below your short call strike. Same with the bull put spread, you want the underlying to stay above the short put strike.

The above trade is constructed of the following legs:

Long 2110 call option
Short 2105 call option

Sooo, you want the underlying (in this case SPX) to stay here.

Short 2010 put option
Long 2005 put option

So, if the stock (SPX) stays between 2010 put – 2105 call, the trade expires worthless for full profit of the entire collected credit.

Will SPX stay between strikes making this trade a winning one?

Although there are two days left until expiration and the trade is in a good shape, everything can happen. We can see the market rallying like crazy this last two days and smash the call side of the Condor, or we can see a frantic sell off falling thru the put side.

If that happens, then I will have to deal with it and roll the endangered side or even close it for a loss. What are my expectations then?

SPX Iron Condor

As you can see from the chart above, the trade has more risk to the upside. The market must run only 37 points up to endanger the call side. That’s 18.5 point every day. And that is not something too unusual. For tomorrow, the expected move is 19.34 points up or down!

See for yourself:

SPX expected move

So, hope that the market stays flat as it was so far and there will be no violent move to the upside. If any violent moves should occur, let’s be it to the down side. The stock market would have to fall by 58.53 point in two days which is less likely.

If this trade expires then I will realize a nice profit of 6.4%.
 
 




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Posted by Martin February 08, 2015
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What to expect from SPX next week?


I am not trying to predict where the market would go next week. I simply do not know it and I am as clueless as everyone else. Will the market shoot up next week or will it fail and fall again?

If I cannot predict the market, I would like to at least establish a boundaries within which the market would move next week and position the trades accordingly.

Last week, in my post “Futures indicate very weak opening tomorrow morning” I did that and established those boundaries.

 
SPX weekly review
Note, this picture indicates last week review.
 

I established (as you can see above) that the market may move within approx. 1975 – 2082 range and on Friday before my trade expiration I could see that the maximum level on the upside was 2076 as I published it in my newsletter issuance “SPX bear call spread 2080/2085 expiration of adjustment” sent to my subscribers last week.

The market reached 2074 that day and then reversed. After a sell off it closed at 2055 level letting our bear call spread expire worthless for the full profit of a received premium.

Can we establish the same range for the next week? I hope so. Here is what I expect from SPX next week.

First, we had a few significant events happening last week. For several weeks, the market was consolidating in a wedge pattern, see below image. On Thursday the market broke up thru that pattern.

Unfortunately, on Friday it closed down making this a false breakout.

 
SPX wedge
 

The failed confirmation corresponds with another pattern the market has been enclosed in: sideways channel. As you can see below, the market attempted to break thru both patterns, the wedge and the channel, but then returned back into the channel.

 
SPX channel
 

For both of the reasons above I am still bearish and think the market will continue down next week. That means, that I may try to open either a bear call spread or Iron condor (leg into the condor as the market falls down).

However if opening either trade I want to make sure to be safe in case it will not go as planned. So what is my expectation then? See the chart below:

 
SPX weekly review
 

As you can see, if the market fails to move up and confirm the breakout, the move down can be quite violent. For this reason we would like to wait on Monday, what the market wants to do and based on that to position my trading.

Let’s see tomorrow.

Happy trading!
 




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Posted by Martin February 08, 2015
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Undervalued stocks


In January I started publishing stocks I consider undervalued. I created an algorithm which browses through my watch list of 150 stocks and checks them whether they are priced per their fair value or not.

It is a never ending quest of investors trying to find stocks which are undervalued. There is many opinions, models, and ways to look for those stocks. But what’s the most important is whether the model works or not in the long term.

I actually created my model last year, but it still was a manual selection, calculation, and testing, which soon become a tedious work and I lost interest. I look for investment I can automate and forget about it.

So I continued working on it and improved my system and now my selection is automated.

I intended to invest in these stocks in my ROTH IRA account, but I still saw a tremendous work in doing so and last night, right before I got to bed I got an idea.

I have a Motif Investing account! I could build a portfolio (motif) which would consist of the selected stocks. It is easy to manage, rebalance, and follow. What a great idea!

I cannot use my January selection anymore, but I still could start with my February selection.

And here is the motif I created today:
 

 

 

You need to have an account with Motif Investing in order to invest in this motif. Opening an account is easy and if you open an account and start investing, you will receive a $150 bonus. Then you can invest as little as $250 into this motif and ride the stocks up. I will do it myself soon (maybe next month).

 

 

I will rebalance this motif every month. I will remove those stocks which will reach their fair value and add new stocks which my screener considers as undervalued. All funds in the motif will be equally allocated in the selected stocks, so for example, the February selection has equal 4% allocation. But the March allocation may change based on how many stocks will be selected in March.

Then this motif would be an excellent way to track my results and even invest in this portfolio and being automatically re-balanced every month.

Let’s see, how this journey ends at the end of the year.

Good luck and happy investing!
 




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Posted by Martin February 02, 2015
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SPX still volatile and weak. Will the selling end or continue?


The SPX futures were able to recover before market opening so the markets opened slightly up this morning. Yet, it quickly dropped down to 1980 level where bulls took over and move the market back up to 2010 level. Very impressive run which could fool many bulls into thinking that selling is over.

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Unfortunately, it is not. Markets reversed and sold off back down to 1990 level confirming its indecisiveness on the direction. From a longer time frame this can be a good sign of a consolidation. From a short time frame we are still range bound. Will the selling continue or are we done?

Time will show. As of now, for this week, I am still bearish on the market. Long term (1 year) I am still bullish.

SPX

Expect more selling to come.

Cheers!




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How do I select stocks for trading options?


A few of my followers and subscribers asked me the same question: “How do I evaluate stocks and select them to trade options”?

When I was relatively a novice to trading options I also didn’t know what stocks to use trading options. But the selection process is exact same as if you select stocks to trade or invest in them.

You want a strategy first. You want to know what you want to trade and how before you start trading. The strategy will help you to select the stocks and create a watch list. I did it the exact same way.
 
 
BornToSellYou can also use screeners which can help you to select stocks you want to trade. For example, if you want to trade covered calls against your dividend stocks you can use a web site Born to Sell run by Mike Scanlin. The web site provides an excellent tutorial on selling covered calls and it will also help you to evaluate stocks in your portfolio whether it makes sense to sell calls against them or not. I used the website myself. The only feature I missed was ability to link it with my broker’s account to do the evaluation automatically without manual entering of stock symbols and trades.

However, if you use a screener like the one above, you still have to do your homework. The screeners will pick everything it finds out there among 30,000 stocks. And believe me, not all stocks are made equal. Many of them will look awesome on paper, but they are actually junk.
 
 

OScreenerFor put options my friend Wayne told me about a good screener at Oscreener. It is a neat tool allowing you to screen for puts as well as other strategies such as spreads.

But again, with those screener you still have to do your homework and weed out junk selection (for example stock below $5, certain sectors – for example I do not trade pharmaceutical stocks, etc.). Some screeners like the Born to Sell ones will allow you to set them to avoid those sectors and stocks, so you need to pay attention to that.

Later, I stopped using screeners as my strategy shifted a bit to a different direction so I no longer needed them. But they were a great tool to select some good candidates for trading. For example I decided trading options against dividend paying stocks. I know those stocks and know what to expect from them (no sudden surprises). To create a list of stock candidates I use other bloggers who invest into dividend stocks to see what they buy, sell and what they think about their dividend stocks.
 
 

There is a lot of dividend investor who regularly publish their analysis and their stock buy or sells. To name a few:

DivHut – regularly posts his outlook and analysis about good dividend stocks which can provide you with a good stock candidates no matter what your strategy, be it options trading, or dividend investing. You can see his last post about dividend stock picks for February.

Dennis McCain Investing – Dennis is a mix of dividend and growth stocks, so following his blog will provide with ideas on growth stocks as well as dividend stocks. He also posts regularly his picks and his opinions on the stocks worth to review.

D4L – A great source of dividend stock analysis. I would even recommend to sign up for his newsletter. If so, you will receive his analysis to you inbox. Very valuable service and great source to build up your watch list of stock candidates.

Retire Before Dad – Another great source of stock candidates worth to look at. His stock picks will also help you to quickly build up your watch list. The good thing is, that you do not have to deal with junk stocks, but stocks other serious investors invest in.

Roadmap2Retire – another dividend growth investor who publishes his recent buys or sells as well as stock analysis and provides a plethora of good stock candidates to build up your list of stocks.
 
 

Of course, following those investors doesn’t mean to automatically and without thinking invest in their picks. Their goals and strategy may be different than yours, their risk tolerance, time horizon, all may not suite you and your investing style. Although I follow investors like those mentioned above, I write down their stock picks and later review them in detail using my criteria.

If looking for a stock to buy as a dividend income – I review them from the dividend growth income perspective and use the rules of that strategy such as dividend yield, growth, history, security of the dividend and many other metrics. If I look for a candidate to trade options against such stock, I review them from the options trading perspective – are they optionable? What premiums they pay? How volatile are they? How they trade options – high open interest, volume, etc.?

 
 
I also follow a few option traders and their blogs:

My Trader’s Journal – Alex runs his blog and posts regularly his naked put selling strategies. He also describes his strategies and potential outlook of each trade. In the past I took inspiration in his blog and followed a few trades myself. I remember a few trades against FCX or SWY which after I reviewed them I liked the output so much that I traded those stocks successfully in the past several times too.

Simply puts – another put selling trader who is posting his trades on a monthly basis and a great source of stocks for your watch list. I also got inspiration of a couple of trades at his web site, such as TEVA, LINN, or POT.

 
 
As you can see, you are not alone. Thanks to the internet, you can bundle with many investors and traders out there where you can start building your watch list and strategy. Those investors are good people and they always help if you ask them.

I started like that a few years ago by taking inspiration from them. You can do the same thing. You will be surprised how easy it would be to pick stocks you can continue building up on them review them further and make your decision whether to invest in them or trade them.

Recently, I posted my February stock picks. The watch list the screener was browsing through was created the way I just tried to describe above. I have approx. 150 stocks in it. But I will invest only in a handful of them if they present a good opportunity. But that’s a next part of the investing – trading process.

Now I hope you know how you can pick the stocks for your trading or investing. You can try it on your own and I believe you will be successful and also surprised how easy it was.

And for those of you who know all this and consider it a piece of cake, how do you or did you select your stock candidates in the past?

 
 




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Posted by Martin February 01, 2015
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Futures indicate very weak opening tomorrow morning


If you are already frustrated by two weak months we just passed (December 2014 and January 2015) it looks like we are going to see February 2015 as bad as January was.

Futures are already trading at a steep discount indicating S&P 500 down -1.45% -29.35. If this drop continues until tomorrow morning, we may expect the markets to open down on Monday.

 
SPX Futures
 

If we drop, then such drop can have a serious consequences for the market. And the chance that we drop below is very high. We had a support at 2000 level which we broke on Friday and closed below slightly above the main support at 1992.

Monday will be crucial. If we break 1992 level and close below it, we have a full arsenal of problems in front of us.

We have one major support at 1975 level then. We will have 200 day MA and previous (December) low at that level which may stop the fall. After that our next stop will be at 1945 and then a free fall all the way down to 1820. If we see a violent trading this coming week we may even hit our extreme level at 1900 this week before we go lower to 1820 support.

Quite a dim outlook for the market, right?

 
SPX weekly review
 

Of course the market can reverse and hold the support at 1992. If that happens, in that case the market may go up to 2034 level or even go higher and close the next week at 2082 level. Everything is possible at Wall Street. However, I do not expect this much considering the weakness of the market.

Although from the long term perspective, this market is still bullish and undergoing a consolidation which may shoot the market to new all-time highs, the very short term outlook is bearish. Since I trade weekly options, my next week outlook is bearish.

On the other hand, as a dividend investor this can be a great opportunity to get ready for buying cheap dividend stocks cheaper (even though I expect them to hold better than growth stocks).

Good luck on your trading and investing in the next week!
 




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Stocks to buy in February 2015


If you bought the stocks I recommended at the beginning of January 2015 and held them until now, you would be up 2.0%.

After the volatile and wild month we just went thru, full of wild ups and downs I can’t believe, the stocks I selected for January ended up 20%. Although it wasn’t an easy road. I noticed that at some point those stocks were in a deep hole, yet they managed to dig themselves up and end profitable.

I just stopped their price actualization, so you can go back and check it out.

So can we repeat this next month? I do not know, so let’s put my screener back to work and see if we can be as successful in February as in January. Here is a list of stocks to buy in February:

 

 

You can decide to buy only a few of those stocks or all of them or just those which pay dividends. In the list, there are a few stocks which were a bit of a surprise to me such as Ford (F) which pays 4% dividend as of this writing. Ford was a stock I was thinking to invest in at some point and seeing it showing up on my screener makes me feel very strong about this stock.

So, let’s pretend we sold all of our January selections except those which showed up again in the list above and added new stocks from this list above. Let’s see how February will end up with those stocks.

What do you think, would you invest in those stocks, all of them, some of them, or not at all?

Good luck!

Previous selection:

Stocks to buy in January 2015
Stocks to buy in March 2015
Stocks to buy in April 2015
Stocks to buy in May 2015
Stocks to buy in June 2015
 




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Posted by Martin January 26, 2015
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Legacy Reserves LP (LGCY) bull put spread trade


Recently one investor asked me a question whether I would consider selling covered calls against my recently purchased shares of Legacy Reserves (LGCY) or not. He was also concerned about the stock and its recent fall in price.

I reviewed my holdings as well as my original reasons for the trade and I must say, nothing has changed. I am even more convinced that my stock purchase will pay big in the future. It will only take time before it happens.

What was a premise of my trade? Buying LGCY was a play which will have a twofold benefit for me and those investors who are purchasing at the current price level:

 

  1. Capital gains when the price of LGCY recovers.
  2. While waiting for the recovery, you will be collecting juicy dividends.

 

Of course, conservative investors would probably skip this trade, but I see it as a great opportunity. A same opportunity I could take in 2008 have I known what I know today.

Will history repeat itself?

Today, people are claiming that price of oil is doomed and that we will be undergoing a long and painful recovery and many energy & oil companies will go belly up. Really? Are we seeing oil prices low forever?

Our society is energy driven and there will always be demand for oil. And oil prices will go up inevitably no matter what others say or think. It is not that far away when Saudi Arabia’s king Abdullah was bragging about not minding oil prices dropping as low as $20 per barrel and stay there for a long time.

Today, when oil was trading around $48 a barrel, the Saudis announced that they see oil prices bottoming. And El-Badri (an OPEC’s Secretary General) even claimed today that oil price may go as high as $200 a barrel.

But such low price of oil is painful for everybody, even for Saudis. Are their claims a sign of them preparing the world for the end this price war? Who knows? Nevertheless you will still find a bunch of pundits predicting all sorts of oil price movement in upcoming months (mostly contradicting each other). But there is one thing for sure. Oil price will start going up. When exactly that happens, how fast, and how high, nobody knows. But what goes down, must go up.

And that happened in the past already may be a guidance of a potential future development. Let’s take a look at the oil price to see what happened and what may happen again:

 
Crude oil in 2008
 

Now, let’s take a look at today’s price action:

 
Crude oil price in 2014
 

Will history repeat itself and will oil recover? I bet it will. It may be different movement as far as its magnitude and speed of course. It may take longer time, smaller price recover than before, it can continue falling forever (as talking heads want us to believe), or it can shoot up like a rocket and recover even faster than before. The price can also continue lower to reach 2008 lows. But at the end, the price will recover. I already took my bet on this by purchasing LGCY shares.

 
Will history repeat itself?
 

Will LGCY history repeat too?

I believe it will. There are a few clues from the company itself which make me an optimist and believe that LGCY will not only survive this price oil turmoil but also recover its price in full extend and continue paying its distribution without cuts.

In 2008 LGCY also took a huge hit caused by oil price collapse. It was a price drop of the same magnitude as we see today:

 
LGCY price in 2008
 

Let’s compare this chart with a price action today:

 
LGCY price in 2014
 

If history repeats itself again, we may see a nice recovery and great capital gains by the end of the year 2015. The price may reach up to $17.36 a share. And the best thing is that while waiting for the price recovery, I will be collecting extremely, nice, juicy, great, super, excellent dividends.

But the best LGCY has to offer is that even during the oil price collapse in 2008 LGCY didn’t cut its distribution and continued holding on.

Before the crash in 2008 the company paid and increased dividends from 1.64 up to 2.08 a share (9.90% yield). When the price collapsed, the yield skyrocketed to 32%. The company held the distribution thru the bad times until the end of 2010 when the price of the stock fully recovered. Then the company started raising dividends again. It went from 2.08 (9.90% yield) to 2.44 (8.41% yield). Today, at $9.94 a share the yield went up to 24.55%

 
LGCY holds dividends
 

Will history repeat itself here again? We do not know. What we know already is that management of the company in a recent presentation at USB MLP One-on-One Conference declared their determination of sustaining this same level of distribution and avoiding its cut as they did in 2008. At a Wells Fargo Energy Symposium COO Paul Horne expressed the new trend in Legacy’s navigation thru this low oil price environment by cutting expenses and making accretive acquisitions while focusing on preservation of shareholder’s distribution.

Will we see the company to sustain their distribution or will they follow their peers who already cut their dividends? So far LGCY announced its next quarterly distribution at 0.61 a share which is in line with the previous rate. So far the company holds the course.

New LGCY bull put spread 10/12.5

This is a strong enough evidence for me to believe that history will repeat itself this time again, like in oil price recovery, like in LGCY price and distribution pattern. And that the price of the stock recovers this year (although it may not be a full recovery to pre-crash level).

To give the company time to recover I decided to open a long term spread with expiration in September 2015 and sell ITM (in-the-money) strikes. This means that I speculate for the price to go above the strike prices. I see the following benefits and dangers in doing so:

 

  • A long time spread gives the stock time to get above ITM strikes making the trade OTM.
  • Selling a long time spread gives me a lot of time value to decay later on.
  • I also sold an intrinsic value which will disappear as soon as the trade progresses into OTM state.
  • If the stock recovers faster the spread may become worthless and bought back earlier than until September 2015
  • There is a danger of early assignment of the short put should the stock perform bad. This is unlikely in early stages of the trade.

 

Trade detail

 
SELL 1 Jul4 14 345 call
BUY 1 Jul4 14 355 call

@ 2.00 DAY (credit)

With this trade, the risk is relatively low (I only risk $50 per contract and have a chance to make $200 per contract). That’s a nice 400% profit!

Let’s see if this trade opens tomorrow and how it will progress during its life span.

Good luck and happy trading/investing!




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Armour Residential (ARR) Are Insiders Abandoning the Ship?


I once invested in Armour Residential (ARR) for high income. It was at the time when this stock traded at $8 – $10 range in 2009. Today, this company is down low at $3.40 a share and it looks like it is going to die after a long agony.

ARR

I invested in this stock excited about great dividends, but failed to see that this stock and company is a trap. At that time I didn’t know much about dividend sustainability. I didn’t know or ignored that high yield not always mean security and learned the hard way that dividend cuts may ruin your investment. The price drop will in all cases exceed your dividend income you received and you always lose in the end.

Although dividend investors do not care much about their portfolio value as they cherish income it produces, you still do not want to be sitting in a losing position and hoping that one day it may recover. Some investors even throw more money against their bad holding to cost average. But constant dividend cuts will catch them. Always.

I am not talking about stocks that are good dividend payers, increase dividends regularly and have a proven history of doing so. Then a large price drop of such stock is a life time opportunity. Unfortunately Armour Residential isn’t such a company.

In 2013 I decided to take a loss and walk away from ARR. Now, I am glad I did it. I closed my trades at around $6 a share at that time. Today, the stock is trading at $3.40 a share. Those who hoped for a recovery and great dividends are probably disappointed.

Although I do not invest in this company anymore, I still time to time look at it to see how my past assessment worked. Was I correct or wrong? I also time to time check discussion boards to see what other investors think. And I still receive news about this company into my inbox.

And today I received news that a company director Bell Marc (co-founder and member of the Board of directors) sold all his holdings in ARR on January 22, 2015:

ARR Holdings

When I was selling my positions in ARR, one of my reasons were that the managers showed in many occasions that they didn’t care about investors, but themselves only, unlike other dividend payers, compare it with Realty Income for example). If a co-founder and one of the directors liquidates all his position in the company, what does that tell you?

Are the rats leaving the ship?
 
 




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