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Posted by MartZee October 03, 2009
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Picks 09/28 – 10/02


New stock picks this week:

none

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
FUQI 3 26.33 -8.01 -9.21
MED 6 19.42 6.49 5.90
STEC 3 26.77 -15.09 -15.81

Contribution this week: $0

Current capital exposure: -3.13%     Learn more

New positions available to open: 0     Learn more

Starting account value = $1,735.29

Account value = $1,679.39 (without margin)

Buying power = $1,403.57

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -3.22%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for OCTOBER 2009 = -4.31%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -27.29%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -34.32%

This week was the weakest one since the rally started. It seems the market may be entering into a correction. The job loss data hit stocks hard and as I expected some stocks were dragged down by the market. Visa has been stopped out and I am expecting further fall next week. I have no trades available to open, so I will be waiting aside and keep my stop loss orders tight. Let’s see how the market will react the next week and deal with the economic data.

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Posted by MartZee October 01, 2009
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Stocks hit ahead of jobs report


Today stocks got hit hard while awaiting jobs report due tomorrow. I do not like how my stocks are behaving so I decided to tighten my stop loss and I am expecting to be stopped out if the report gets bad. I am planning on selling STEC and Visa (V) and wait for its buy-back point, if it happens at all.




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Posted by MartZee September 29, 2009
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Visa added to portfolio


Today I have bought more [tag]shares[/tag] of [tag]Visa[/tag] (V) as much as my [tag]money management[/tag] allowed to add.
Per the plan I had (1) position to open available, so I decided to follow Visa and add more if the price turns upwards. It happened today morning, before the news about banks and [tag]credit[/tag] regulations came up and dragged the [tag]stock price[/tag] down:

09/29/2009    09:37:01   Bought 4 V @ 71.95

Maybe I set the buy price too low. Originally I wanted start buying at $72, but later I changed my mind and set the [tag]buy point[/tag] at $71.95. I could avoid today’s price slump.

Because the market is a bit shaky at the end of this month (awaiting economical reports, job data, company 3Q reports, etc), the stock may go further down and reach the level around $68 per share. If that happens, I will add more shares to the portfolio using trailing bar momentum strategy. Let’s wait what the stock will do in a couple of days or weeks.

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Posted by MartZee September 25, 2009
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Picks 09/21 – 09/25


New stock picks this week:

STEC Inc.

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
FUQI 3 28.83 -0.51 -0.59
MED 6 19.54 7.21 6.55
STEC 3 29.48 -6.96 -7.29
V 7 70.66 44.87 9.98

Contribution this week: $100

Current capital exposure (total risk of the entire portfolio): -1.70%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting account value = $1,791.45

Account value = $1,735.29 (without margin)

Buying power = $948.50

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -3.13%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for SEPTEMBER 2009 = -1.13%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -24.87%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -32.95%

At the end of the month the stock market became a bit choppy and declining, but nothing major so far. It still may be just a regular small dip as the two previous ones.
Some stocks got hit hard such as Visa (V) which has lost 3.90% withing a day as it happened a few days ago to STEC I tried to search what happened to Visa and unless a Cartel fine in Hungary the only information or better say speculation I could find was that the mutual funds are closing positions to take gains and show some better results up in their quarter reports. There could be an impact of Sen. Dodds announcement of a new regulations for credit card companies. Who know. Definitely, the drop has no fundamental roots so the drop is just temporary and the stock will bounce back after this drop.

Today’s drop got very close to my stop loss level, so there are two scenarios which may happen next week:

  1. If the stock drops more on Monday, so my position gets closed on stop loss, I will apply the same strategy for buying the stock back as I did with STEC. I will use the Trailing Bar Momentum Reversal Strategy to trail the price of the stock lower and buy back for cheaper price on its reversal.
  2. Or if I won’t get stopped out, this definitely will be an opportunity to add more shares to my existing positions. Since my money management plan allows me to open a new position, see New positions available to open line above, I will trail the stock price down and buy more shares on its reversal.

I wish the second option happens on Monday and the stock will continue growing instead of dropping further down. We will see.

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Posted by MartZee September 23, 2009
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New position opened STEC


Today morning I have bought STEC back on its reversal.

09/23/2009   09:30:47   Bought  3  STEC  @  31.799




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Posted by MartZee September 21, 2009
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STEC trailing down


Today’s trading of STEC ended up lower than on Friday, but most of the day the trading was a side way direction. I moved my trailing buy order lower to a new price at $31.55 per share.




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Posted by MartZee September 21, 2009
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STEC ready to buy back


As I said in my weekly stock picks review I still think STEC is a great investment, which has been driven down by a panic without any solid base and it will potentially go back to the levels around $40 – $45 or even higher as those fearful freaks in the market realize there was no need for panicking unless the new competitor hammers the company down, which won’t happen tomorrow, next week or even next quarter.
To buy back this stock I will use a technique called Trailing Bar Momentum Reversal Strategy… (uf) which simply means I will be trailing my buy order down a few ticks above the previous day high. STEC’s Friday’s high was at $32.95 so I am setting my buy order at $33.5. If the price won’t reach this level on Monday and the stock slides further down, I will set the new buy order for Tuesday based on Monday’s price high and so on as long as the stock reverses and starts rising again.
Let’s see what will happen tomorrow.




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Posted by MartZee September 19, 2009
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Picks 09/14 – 09/18


New stock picks this week:

none

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
FUQI 3 28.34 -1.98 -2.28
MED 6 20.45 12.67 11.52
V 7 73.79 66.78 14.85

Contribution this week: $0

Current capital exposure (total risk of the entire portfolio): -1.74%

New positions available to open: 1

Starting account value = $1,691.45

Account value = $1,668.12 (without margin)

Buying power = $943.87

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -1.38%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for SEPTEMBER 2009 = 0.79%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -24.51%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -33.54%

I was searching through the net to find why STEC has been so brutalized and turned my 18% gain into a small loss (thanks to my trailing stop loss) within a day. What I found shocked me and I still can not believe that someone can react and panic the way we could see in this stock.

What happened? A competitor, Pliant Technology, announced it would (I am stressing the word “would”) enter the enterprise solid-state drive market with its enterprise flash drive. If I understand English well, “would” doesn’t necessarily mean “will” and even if it really will enter the market as announced I would wait how it would affect STEC.

It seems investors had different opinion and were not reacting to what the company will do and how well or bad it will do after the new competitor shows up. They just simply dumped a fundamentally good stock in a volume I haven’t experienced since my first trading day. The volume was 7 times larger than normal. The following day (today) the stock continued falling. In the very first moment of trading this stock it was obvious that it was missing any support from institutional buyers. Maybe they are still waiting to start buying.

Analysts (well I know about one analyst so far, Betsy Van Hess) decreased target price for this stock even though they admit this announcement won’t affect STEC fundamentally and they see a growth potential in at least upcoming quarter (Aaron C. Rakers). There may be some pressure on the stock’s price during the next week which may lower the price even more, however, I am keeping the stock in my watch list and buy it back for cheaper price at its reversal.

The Street Insider brings the whole story about this stock

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Posted by MartZee September 18, 2009
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STEC sold at stop loss


Today, after huge drop of price, STEC has been sold at stop loss:

09/18/2009    12:28:16   Sold  3  STEC  @  30.0106




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Posted by MartZee September 13, 2009
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Picks 09/08 – 09/11


New stock picks this week:

Medifast Inc (MED)

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
FUQI 3 30.35 4.05 4.66
MED 6 19.44 6.61 6.01
STEC 3 41.30 19.53 18.71
V 7 72.29 56.28 12.51

Contribution this week: $0

Current capital exposure (total risk of the entire portfolio): -3.89%

New positions available to open: 0

Starting account value = $1,657.54

Account value = $1,691.45 (without margin)

Buying power = $853.83

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 2.05%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for SEPTEMBER 2009 = 2.20%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -23.46%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -33.04%

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