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Posted by Martin February 19, 2015
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AAPL Bull Call Spread finished with 236% gain!


I do not see a gain in hundreds percent level too often. Many of my trades usually end up between 6% to 50% range. This time a scored a big win with my Apple (AAPL) bull call spread I opened at the beginning of December 2014.

Apple is a company which is making money. It is a money cow, money making machine. Yet you see many investors trashing this company ignoring reality. I spot a great opportunity taking a debit spread against AAPL in December and decided to take it.

But it wasn’t an easy ride whatsoever. At some point, this trade looked like a disaster (most of January) when investors and traders were selling the stock. And at some point, I was even doubting my thinking about this stock. Many times I had to repeat myself to stay calm and give the stock (company) time to prove itself.

So I decided to act and opened a bull call spread trade:

STO 1 AAPL February 20 2015 130 Call
BTO 1 AAPL February 20 2015 125 Call

@ 2.23 LIMIT DEBIT

The stock was moving up fast and strong and I expected it moving even higher. But then the stock stalled and a sell off started. That was when my fear of getting in a trade at a very top came in and pressed me until the company announced its incredible earnings. Actually I found what AAPL may report on the internet earlier than that as someone was writing that they would report around 70 billion dollars earnings for the fourth quarter only (which is the same amount as the entire 2013 year).

After that the stock started recovering and my only concern was whether I gave the stock enough time or not to show its power.

AAPL

I paid $223 for this spread and my potential gain was $770.00 (334.78%). But since expiration for this trade was approaching fast (this Friday) and I am not sure whether the stock will be able to get to those highs I decided to close the tyrade earlier and take $526 profit (236%) instead.

I still have yet another AAPL trade expiring next week (119/125 bull call spread) which is in good shape too and is about to make another $371 as of this writing.

 




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Posted by Martin February 16, 2015
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S&P 500 futures collapsed. If it doesn’t recover by tomorrow, markets will open down.


The news came in. Greece refused to apply for a bailout plan extension considering it “unacceptable”. This is sending dollar higher against Euro and S&P 500 futures just collapsed from last Friday’s new all-time high:

SPX futures

Although there is still plenty of time for the futures to recover (until tomorrow morning when the US markets open) this indicates that the US market would open low.

If the downtrend continues, we may see a failed breakout confirmation (as I wrote yesterday, on Friday, we saw a breakout thru the last resistance at 2093 level). Failing to confirm the breakout would mean that the market would return back down below the resistance level and most likely continued on the downward move.

If that happens we may see it falling back down to 2000 level (not in one day, but in a week or two).

All indicators I use however point to bullish trend, so this collapse in futures may be temporary. Even if the markets open down on Tuesday, it may recover by the end of the day.

Let’s wait for tomorrow and see what SPX wants to do. Based on that we will open a new trade against SPX. If the market shows indecisiveness, we will skip the trade until we know the direction or until the next week.

Happy trading and investing!
 




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Posted by Martin February 15, 2015
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Market outlook for the next week


On Monday markets will be closed due to President Day observation. For this week we will see a short trading. However, the most important trading happened last week.

In my previous market outlook post I wrote about two patterns the market was about to attack – a wedge pattern and sideways channel.

Last week, the market broke up thru both patterns. It confirmed the break out the next day and marched up to its first resistance at 2094.

It smashed that resistance and create new all-time high!

We now need a confirmation for this break out and I am expecting this to happen next week. Well, to be clear, I am not expecting the confirmation to happen since I do not know whether it happens or not. I am expecting that the market will attempt to confirm it or fail it.

If the market confirms this break out we will have doors open to a new, strong bull run up. As one trader once mentioned, even bulls would be surprised by this bull trend.

If we fail to confirm this break out, the market may fall back down to 2000 level.

What is my bet on this? Since we broke two previous patterns, I would say we have a great chance to break this last resistance too.

This is changing my weekly bearish outlook to a bullish one. Long term, I am still bullish. Now I am bullish short term too.

What is my outlook for the next week?

Let’s take a look at the chart below:
 

SPX

Although everything can happen, I expect the market to continue going up. Tuesday trading may tell us the story, whether the week will be more bearish or bullish. We may see a pull back, we may see a new run up creating new ATH (all time high).

Nevertheless, I expect the market to move in the 2083 – 2104 range, unless unexpected bad or extremely good news override this expectation and move the market to its extremes.

Happy trading and investing!




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Posted by Martin February 12, 2015
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SPX 2005/2010/2105/2110 Iron Condor in good shape to expire


This morning I opened a new trade – Iron Condor against the S&P 500 (SPX). My strikes are 2005/2010 puts and 2105/2110 calls. I collected $30 credit for this trade. Although there are still two days left until expiration the trade is in good shape to expire worthless.

With Iron Condor you want the underlying to stay between the two spreads. An Iron Condor consists from two spreads – a bear call spread and bull put spread. As with a bear call spread, you want the price of underlying to stay below your short call strike. Same with the bull put spread, you want the underlying to stay above the short put strike.

The above trade is constructed of the following legs:

Long 2110 call option
Short 2105 call option

Sooo, you want the underlying (in this case SPX) to stay here.

Short 2010 put option
Long 2005 put option

So, if the stock (SPX) stays between 2010 put – 2105 call, the trade expires worthless for full profit of the entire collected credit.

Will SPX stay between strikes making this trade a winning one?

Although there are two days left until expiration and the trade is in a good shape, everything can happen. We can see the market rallying like crazy this last two days and smash the call side of the Condor, or we can see a frantic sell off falling thru the put side.

If that happens, then I will have to deal with it and roll the endangered side or even close it for a loss. What are my expectations then?

SPX Iron Condor

As you can see from the chart above, the trade has more risk to the upside. The market must run only 37 points up to endanger the call side. That’s 18.5 point every day. And that is not something too unusual. For tomorrow, the expected move is 19.34 points up or down!

See for yourself:

SPX expected move

So, hope that the market stays flat as it was so far and there will be no violent move to the upside. If any violent moves should occur, let’s be it to the down side. The stock market would have to fall by 58.53 point in two days which is less likely.

If this trade expires then I will realize a nice profit of 6.4%.
 
 




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Posted by Martin February 08, 2015
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What to expect from SPX next week?


I am not trying to predict where the market would go next week. I simply do not know it and I am as clueless as everyone else. Will the market shoot up next week or will it fail and fall again?

If I cannot predict the market, I would like to at least establish a boundaries within which the market would move next week and position the trades accordingly.

Last week, in my post “Futures indicate very weak opening tomorrow morning” I did that and established those boundaries.

 
SPX weekly review
Note, this picture indicates last week review.
 

I established (as you can see above) that the market may move within approx. 1975 – 2082 range and on Friday before my trade expiration I could see that the maximum level on the upside was 2076 as I published it in my newsletter issuance “SPX bear call spread 2080/2085 expiration of adjustment” sent to my subscribers last week.

The market reached 2074 that day and then reversed. After a sell off it closed at 2055 level letting our bear call spread expire worthless for the full profit of a received premium.

Can we establish the same range for the next week? I hope so. Here is what I expect from SPX next week.

First, we had a few significant events happening last week. For several weeks, the market was consolidating in a wedge pattern, see below image. On Thursday the market broke up thru that pattern.

Unfortunately, on Friday it closed down making this a false breakout.

 
SPX wedge
 

The failed confirmation corresponds with another pattern the market has been enclosed in: sideways channel. As you can see below, the market attempted to break thru both patterns, the wedge and the channel, but then returned back into the channel.

 
SPX channel
 

For both of the reasons above I am still bearish and think the market will continue down next week. That means, that I may try to open either a bear call spread or Iron condor (leg into the condor as the market falls down).

However if opening either trade I want to make sure to be safe in case it will not go as planned. So what is my expectation then? See the chart below:

 
SPX weekly review
 

As you can see, if the market fails to move up and confirm the breakout, the move down can be quite violent. For this reason we would like to wait on Monday, what the market wants to do and based on that to position my trading.

Let’s see tomorrow.

Happy trading!
 




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Posted by Martin February 08, 2015
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Undervalued stocks


In January I started publishing stocks I consider undervalued. I created an algorithm which browses through my watch list of 150 stocks and checks them whether they are priced per their fair value or not.

It is a never ending quest of investors trying to find stocks which are undervalued. There is many opinions, models, and ways to look for those stocks. But what’s the most important is whether the model works or not in the long term.

I actually created my model last year, but it still was a manual selection, calculation, and testing, which soon become a tedious work and I lost interest. I look for investment I can automate and forget about it.

So I continued working on it and improved my system and now my selection is automated.

I intended to invest in these stocks in my ROTH IRA account, but I still saw a tremendous work in doing so and last night, right before I got to bed I got an idea.

I have a Motif Investing account! I could build a portfolio (motif) which would consist of the selected stocks. It is easy to manage, rebalance, and follow. What a great idea!

I cannot use my January selection anymore, but I still could start with my February selection.

And here is the motif I created today:
 

 

 

You need to have an account with Motif Investing in order to invest in this motif. Opening an account is easy and if you open an account and start investing, you will receive a $150 bonus. Then you can invest as little as $250 into this motif and ride the stocks up. I will do it myself soon (maybe next month).

 

 

I will rebalance this motif every month. I will remove those stocks which will reach their fair value and add new stocks which my screener considers as undervalued. All funds in the motif will be equally allocated in the selected stocks, so for example, the February selection has equal 4% allocation. But the March allocation may change based on how many stocks will be selected in March.

Then this motif would be an excellent way to track my results and even invest in this portfolio and being automatically re-balanced every month.

Let’s see, how this journey ends at the end of the year.

Good luck and happy investing!
 




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Posted by Martin February 02, 2015
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SPX still volatile and weak. Will the selling end or continue?


The SPX futures were able to recover before market opening so the markets opened slightly up this morning. Yet, it quickly dropped down to 1980 level where bulls took over and move the market back up to 2010 level. Very impressive run which could fool many bulls into thinking that selling is over.

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Unfortunately, it is not. Markets reversed and sold off back down to 1990 level confirming its indecisiveness on the direction. From a longer time frame this can be a good sign of a consolidation. From a short time frame we are still range bound. Will the selling continue or are we done?

Time will show. As of now, for this week, I am still bearish on the market. Long term (1 year) I am still bullish.

SPX

Expect more selling to come.

Cheers!




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How do I select stocks for trading options?


A few of my followers and subscribers asked me the same question: “How do I evaluate stocks and select them to trade options”?

When I was relatively a novice to trading options I also didn’t know what stocks to use trading options. But the selection process is exact same as if you select stocks to trade or invest in them.

You want a strategy first. You want to know what you want to trade and how before you start trading. The strategy will help you to select the stocks and create a watch list. I did it the exact same way.
 
 
BornToSellYou can also use screeners which can help you to select stocks you want to trade. For example, if you want to trade covered calls against your dividend stocks you can use a web site Born to Sell run by Mike Scanlin. The web site provides an excellent tutorial on selling covered calls and it will also help you to evaluate stocks in your portfolio whether it makes sense to sell calls against them or not. I used the website myself. The only feature I missed was ability to link it with my broker’s account to do the evaluation automatically without manual entering of stock symbols and trades.

However, if you use a screener like the one above, you still have to do your homework. The screeners will pick everything it finds out there among 30,000 stocks. And believe me, not all stocks are made equal. Many of them will look awesome on paper, but they are actually junk.
 
 

OScreenerFor put options my friend Wayne told me about a good screener at Oscreener. It is a neat tool allowing you to screen for puts as well as other strategies such as spreads.

But again, with those screener you still have to do your homework and weed out junk selection (for example stock below $5, certain sectors – for example I do not trade pharmaceutical stocks, etc.). Some screeners like the Born to Sell ones will allow you to set them to avoid those sectors and stocks, so you need to pay attention to that.

Later, I stopped using screeners as my strategy shifted a bit to a different direction so I no longer needed them. But they were a great tool to select some good candidates for trading. For example I decided trading options against dividend paying stocks. I know those stocks and know what to expect from them (no sudden surprises). To create a list of stock candidates I use other bloggers who invest into dividend stocks to see what they buy, sell and what they think about their dividend stocks.
 
 

There is a lot of dividend investor who regularly publish their analysis and their stock buy or sells. To name a few:

DivHut – regularly posts his outlook and analysis about good dividend stocks which can provide you with a good stock candidates no matter what your strategy, be it options trading, or dividend investing. You can see his last post about dividend stock picks for February.

Dennis McCain Investing – Dennis is a mix of dividend and growth stocks, so following his blog will provide with ideas on growth stocks as well as dividend stocks. He also posts regularly his picks and his opinions on the stocks worth to review.

D4L – A great source of dividend stock analysis. I would even recommend to sign up for his newsletter. If so, you will receive his analysis to you inbox. Very valuable service and great source to build up your watch list of stock candidates.

Retire Before Dad – Another great source of stock candidates worth to look at. His stock picks will also help you to quickly build up your watch list. The good thing is, that you do not have to deal with junk stocks, but stocks other serious investors invest in.

Roadmap2Retire – another dividend growth investor who publishes his recent buys or sells as well as stock analysis and provides a plethora of good stock candidates to build up your list of stocks.
 
 

Of course, following those investors doesn’t mean to automatically and without thinking invest in their picks. Their goals and strategy may be different than yours, their risk tolerance, time horizon, all may not suite you and your investing style. Although I follow investors like those mentioned above, I write down their stock picks and later review them in detail using my criteria.

If looking for a stock to buy as a dividend income – I review them from the dividend growth income perspective and use the rules of that strategy such as dividend yield, growth, history, security of the dividend and many other metrics. If I look for a candidate to trade options against such stock, I review them from the options trading perspective – are they optionable? What premiums they pay? How volatile are they? How they trade options – high open interest, volume, etc.?

 
 
I also follow a few option traders and their blogs:

My Trader’s Journal – Alex runs his blog and posts regularly his naked put selling strategies. He also describes his strategies and potential outlook of each trade. In the past I took inspiration in his blog and followed a few trades myself. I remember a few trades against FCX or SWY which after I reviewed them I liked the output so much that I traded those stocks successfully in the past several times too.

Simply puts – another put selling trader who is posting his trades on a monthly basis and a great source of stocks for your watch list. I also got inspiration of a couple of trades at his web site, such as TEVA, LINN, or POT.

 
 
As you can see, you are not alone. Thanks to the internet, you can bundle with many investors and traders out there where you can start building your watch list and strategy. Those investors are good people and they always help if you ask them.

I started like that a few years ago by taking inspiration from them. You can do the same thing. You will be surprised how easy it would be to pick stocks you can continue building up on them review them further and make your decision whether to invest in them or trade them.

Recently, I posted my February stock picks. The watch list the screener was browsing through was created the way I just tried to describe above. I have approx. 150 stocks in it. But I will invest only in a handful of them if they present a good opportunity. But that’s a next part of the investing – trading process.

Now I hope you know how you can pick the stocks for your trading or investing. You can try it on your own and I believe you will be successful and also surprised how easy it was.

And for those of you who know all this and consider it a piece of cake, how do you or did you select your stock candidates in the past?

 
 




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Posted by Martin February 01, 2015
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Futures indicate very weak opening tomorrow morning


If you are already frustrated by two weak months we just passed (December 2014 and January 2015) it looks like we are going to see February 2015 as bad as January was.

Futures are already trading at a steep discount indicating S&P 500 down -1.45% -29.35. If this drop continues until tomorrow morning, we may expect the markets to open down on Monday.

 
SPX Futures
 

If we drop, then such drop can have a serious consequences for the market. And the chance that we drop below is very high. We had a support at 2000 level which we broke on Friday and closed below slightly above the main support at 1992.

Monday will be crucial. If we break 1992 level and close below it, we have a full arsenal of problems in front of us.

We have one major support at 1975 level then. We will have 200 day MA and previous (December) low at that level which may stop the fall. After that our next stop will be at 1945 and then a free fall all the way down to 1820. If we see a violent trading this coming week we may even hit our extreme level at 1900 this week before we go lower to 1820 support.

Quite a dim outlook for the market, right?

 
SPX weekly review
 

Of course the market can reverse and hold the support at 1992. If that happens, in that case the market may go up to 2034 level or even go higher and close the next week at 2082 level. Everything is possible at Wall Street. However, I do not expect this much considering the weakness of the market.

Although from the long term perspective, this market is still bullish and undergoing a consolidation which may shoot the market to new all-time highs, the very short term outlook is bearish. Since I trade weekly options, my next week outlook is bearish.

On the other hand, as a dividend investor this can be a great opportunity to get ready for buying cheap dividend stocks cheaper (even though I expect them to hold better than growth stocks).

Good luck on your trading and investing in the next week!
 




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Stocks to buy in February 2015


If you bought the stocks I recommended at the beginning of January 2015 and held them until now, you would be up 2.0%.

After the volatile and wild month we just went thru, full of wild ups and downs I can’t believe, the stocks I selected for January ended up 20%. Although it wasn’t an easy road. I noticed that at some point those stocks were in a deep hole, yet they managed to dig themselves up and end profitable.

I just stopped their price actualization, so you can go back and check it out.

So can we repeat this next month? I do not know, so let’s put my screener back to work and see if we can be as successful in February as in January. Here is a list of stocks to buy in February:

 

 

You can decide to buy only a few of those stocks or all of them or just those which pay dividends. In the list, there are a few stocks which were a bit of a surprise to me such as Ford (F) which pays 4% dividend as of this writing. Ford was a stock I was thinking to invest in at some point and seeing it showing up on my screener makes me feel very strong about this stock.

So, let’s pretend we sold all of our January selections except those which showed up again in the list above and added new stocks from this list above. Let’s see how February will end up with those stocks.

What do you think, would you invest in those stocks, all of them, some of them, or not at all?

Good luck!

Previous selection:

Stocks to buy in January 2015
Stocks to buy in March 2015
Stocks to buy in April 2015
Stocks to buy in May 2015
Stocks to buy in June 2015
 




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